By Dele Sobowale
“There is nothing more disturbing than for a leader to look back and see that nobody is following.” US President Lyndon B Johnson, 1908-1973.
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There is a remarkable similarity between the lives of Johnson and President Buhari. LBJ was re-elected by a land-slide victory in 1964. By 1966, he was under severe attack by the same people who provided his historic success.
As Buhari approaches the second year of his second term, he should also be asking himself: “what went wrong in two years?” Right now, except for his appointees, nobody is following Buhari anymore and he is running out of time to restore the leadership with which he was invested in 2015. If he ends like this, it will be the second term he was booed out of office. He would have left no positive legacy.
“Advice is seldom welcome; and those who need it most always want it the least.”
Earl of Chesterfield, 1694-1773. VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS p 5.
Because I intend to give advice to President Buhari, I must make two declarations. First, I don’t expect him to accept it. I have offered unsolicited advice to all the Heads of State since the 1980s. They have been ignored. The only exception was my joining Dr Kalu Idika Kalu, K-I-K, then Minister of Finance, in advocating the introduction of the Value Added Tax, VAT, during the Babangida administration. We were in the minority. Surprisingly, IBB, accepted it. Today VAT drops at least N100 billion a month into the Federation Account. Nobody remembers those who made it possible – IBB, K-I-K and me.
Second, I will not be offended. Giving advice is a dangerous thing to do – even if people ask for it. Buhari has not asked me; he is under no obligation to take these. But, I am also a citizen (a Senior citizen in fact) of Nigeria. I owe my country an obligation to intervene in national affairs – especially at a time like this, when disaster looms; predicted anarchy is here at the Next Level.
LEGACY – A DOMESTIC COMPARISON.
“Even God cannot change the past.” Agathon, 447-401BC.
On May 29, 2021, Buhari would have completed his sixth year as President. Yet, in that period his government has been responsible for less than twelve bills. None of them would ever pass the test of time. Even now, few of them are known to Nigerians. Similarly, he has no major physical structure – like the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos or LNG in the Niger Delta, Tin Can Island – for which people will remember him with fondness. That is the stark reality of the last six years – which we will now compare with another leader and era in Nigeria. The comparison was domesticated because comparing Buhari’s years with Johnson’s two years after his election might make people weep. Many elements of Johnson’s Great Society programme exist today – even if amended.
In 1991, thirty years ago, President I B Babangida was serving his sixth year as the military President. In 1991 alone, he passed nothing less than 45 Decrees; many of which still rule our lives today. Here are four of the best. The reader can see how leaders embarking on missions are propelled by visions.
· Central Bank of Nigeria, Decree 24
· Bank and Other Financial Institutions, D 25
· Nigeria Export Processing Zone, Decree 34
· Nigeria Export-Import Bank, Decree 38
Just consider those four and the roles they still play in our national lives; and then think of Buhari’s six years. Don’t weep yet for Nigeria. Let us go back to two years before 1991 and extract more statutes which still govern our lives now.
The following Decrees were among the lasting ones passed into law in 1990.
· Company and Allied Matters Act, CAMA, Decree 20.
· Nigeria LNG (Fiscal Incentives, Guaranties and Assurances.
Before that, in 1989, below are three gems.
· National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, NDLEA, Decree 48
· Revenue Mobilisation Allocation Fiscal Commission, Decree 49.
· National Mortgage Institutions, Decree 53.
There is no need to list seriatim the over 200 Decrees passed by IBB, the institutions that were created and the legacies which will outlive Babangida who will turn 80 on August 17 this year. Irrespective of what anyone might consider his short-comings, his vision and legacies still rule us today. Even God cannot change that part of the history of Nigeria. If I am asked how Babangida accomplished the feat, my answer will be: “Look at his cabinet; his Ministers and advisers.” Below are the names of just a few who were world class.
· Justice (Prince) Bola Ajibola, SAN, CFR, KBE – Minister of Justice.
· Professor Jubril Aminu, CON – Minister of Education.
· Professor Olikoye Ransome-Kuti – Minister of Health
· Dr Kalu Idika Kalu – Minister of Finance
· Professor Bolaji Akinyemi – Minister of External Affairs
· Major-General Mamman Kontagora – Minister of Works
And, if I am asked why Buhari might leave no lasting legacy, my answer will be: “Look at his cabinet, his Ministers and advisers.” Placing the two side by side, one can easily see the difference between top quality and miserable mediocrity.
“A man cannot gradually enlarge his mind as he does his house.”
Alexis de Tocqueville, 1805-1859
I was privileged to have full access to the IBB Library while researching for materials for the book IBRAHI B BABAGIDA 1985-1992: LETTING A THOUSAND FLOWERS BLOOM. First, I was astonished by the number of books IBB had read. I knew he read them because there were markings and comments by him on the margin of most of them. Second, I was impressed by the discovery that despite the global stature of his Ministers, he was not intimidated by them. He went through everybody’s proposals with a fine-tooth comb. I was amused by comments written on the margins of proposals by demi-gods. Third, I found out that IBB did his homework on the most monumental issues which might result in decrees being passed. He was an active participant in the discussions at the Federal Executive Council meeting.
One thing was clear; IBB was prepared for the job and he never stopped learning and enlarging his mind. Compared to the situation in which Nigeria finds itself today, the difference is clear. We have a team leader who abhors reading and learning new things. And, we have the worst team representing us.
WHAT CAN BE DONE?
“Most people resist to accept reality only because they would collapse if they accept it.” Goethe, 1749-1832, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, p 208.
That leaves us with the question: what can be done to salvage Buhari’s tenure? The first thing is for Buhari to admit that there is very little to show for his years in office. In fact, the legacies which stand out now are mostly negative. That is not in his interest. He might not realise it, as he begins his seventh year in office, he becomes more of a lame duck President. The fear factor is continuously reduced. Nobody trembles anymore about the EFCC being sent after them. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has itself become a toothless bull dog. Increasingly, people, including his own party members, will defy him.
Unlike IBB he does not have the time to build great infrastructures that would help to salvage his presidency. Even the Second Niger Bridge, which would induce gratitude among Igbos is already coming too late. At any rate the majority of Nigerians will derive no benefit from it.
In my view, only a measure which meets the yearnings of a lot of Nigerians can erase the current negative perception of the Buhri administration. In one step, Buhari can turn the tide of public opinion in his favour. Before disclosing the recommended measure, let me again take readers back to the 1990s – under IBB.
Most Nigerians old enough would recall that the Transition to Civil Rule Programme was at first scheduled to end in 1990. But, by 1989, it was clear that the economy was not responding to the Structural Adjustment Programme, SAP, as envisaged by government. There was also a need to shift the dateline for transition to civil rule. Babangida knew there was one issue which remained popular with the elite – creation of states. So, he announced the creation of nine states to bring the number to thirty. In one well-considered measure, he gained time for the transition and got peoples’ minds off SAP.
Abacha used the same trick to extend the transition to civil rule under his junta by creating six more in 1996 to bring the number to 36.
“An invasion of armies can be resisted; but not an idea whose time has come.
Victor Hugo, 1802-1885.
Buhari, unlike his former military colleagues, cannot unilaterally create more states. But, he can do something else. He can appoint a Constitutional Review Committee or some such body to write a new constitution which will restructure the country. He can even include for consideration anything he likes. But, he should be seen to have initiated it. The outcome of the Committee’s work should be passed to the National Assembly without any alterations. Finally, he can insist on two thirds of the Committee being selected by the states and civil societies; while the Federal Government nominates the rest.
It might sound cynical, but, irrespective of the outcome of the exercise, one person would have gained tremendously – President Buhari. In fact, attitudes will change the minute he makes that announcement. A lot of wrongs will be forgiven. He can return to Daura as he left it – a respected leader once again.
Otherwise he is doomed.
I SUPPORT PROF GEORGE OBIOZOR ABSOLUTELY.
“It is very unpatriotic and trifles on the sensibilities of the Igbo for the [PDP] committee to even suggest the rotation of the presidency to the Northeast in the first instance and open to every part of Nigeria as a major slight.”
Professor George Obiozor, President Ohaneze, March 9, 2021.
Obiozor responded to Bala Mohammed’s Committee of the PDP which has recommended that the PDP presidential candidate should come from the Northeast. I totally agree with Prof. It is difficult to see how rotation can take place if a Northerner succeeds a Northerner. That said; Ohaneze should take two steps urgently. First, encourage all Igbo potential Presidential candidates to now step forward. Second, they should start building bridges across zones.