By Mideno Bayagbon
For frontline Presidential aspirant, Alhaji Ahmed Bola Tinubu, it was a bad start to his life long ambition to be president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. It was a week better forgotten by him and his campaign managers. From unforced errors to downright spit on the face, the Tinubu campaign organisation recruited more people to dislike their aspirant than to like him.
Take the case of Honorable Jubril Abdulmumin, the self acclaimed DG of the Asiwaju Bola Tinubu Political Support Group. On AriseTV, Rufai Oseni, one of the anchors of the Morning Show asked two ordinarily simple questions: “How did your candidate make his staggering wealth? Secondly, there have been discrepancies about his age. Let me ask you, how old is he?” These questions so stunned the former House of Representative member, who at a time wanted to be speaker of the House that he could only attempt filibustering. He stuttered. He tried haranguing and bullying the anchorman, who stood resolute with demands for answers to the questions. Jubril Abdulmumin ended up doing more damage to the campaign dreams of the Tinubu group with the viral video, which soon went ballistic on social media. Any good the announcement of Bola Tinubu candidacy could have generated was frittered away. An enemy or rival could not have done worse.
To compound his woes, bad news also came from the home front. Afenifere, the pan Yoruba Social Cultural Group, came out boldly to voice their opposition to Tinubu’s candidacy. Also a seemingly orchestrated cacophony of voices, of mostly elite Yorubas, especially in the media, joined Bode George, Tinubu’s known traditional enemy, in standing up to register their rejection of his aspiration. Which must be a bit surprising to the Tinubu team which was busy up north, with their principal, trying to woo the northern political heavyweights to their side.
To add insult to injury, the Arewa Consultative Forum, in veiled reference to the rumoured health challenges of Asiwaju Tinubu and his age which has attracted so much debate, warned that Nigeria cannot afford to have another President with health challenges. As everyone remembers, of the four Presidents we have had since the return to democracy in 1999, two have had their tenures moderated by ill health. Indeed, one of them, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua actually transited while in office. The other, President Muhammadu Buhari has spent so much time attending to his health mostly in the United Kingdom that his tenure, in the final analysis, maybe classified by historians as one marred by ill health.
As it were, the Jagaban of Borgu, is currently living the saying: A man’s enemy could be members of his household. Most of the vitriols and attacks on his ambition have mainly come from the South West where he is regarded, by some, as the new Obafemi Awolowo, the renowned sage of the Yoruba nation. Even some of his known friends, like Professor Wole Soyinka, who some overzealous supporters of the Asiwaju had insinuated, have endorsed his ambition, have come out to denounce such.
Against expectation that the South West will queue behind his ambition, there have been discontents and open rebellion against his ambition. As it is, the South West is fragmented into at least three groups. There are those who support him overwhelmingly as opposed to those, especially of the younger elements, who are rooting for Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo and John Kayode Fayemi, the outgoing governor of Ekiti State. This is not to mention people like Tunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Adesina (President of the African Development Bank) and a few others hanging in the wings, scanning the impending scenario for an opportunity to jump into the presidential race.
Despite pretence to the contrary, the Tinubu campaign group could be heard last week expressing frustration at the perceived soft landing the mafia around President Buhari have given VP Osinbajo. Feeling betrayed, they were murmuring all over last week that Buhari and the people around him have not hidden their opposition to Bola Tinubu succeeding Muhammadu Buhari. They appear to be chumming up to the Vice President and to the one his followers call the Lion of Ubima, Transportation Minister, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi. Then there is Fayemi also pulling weight among the President’s circle.
Nevertheless, unperturbed by the seeming gang up around the villa, Tinubu strategically continue to romance some leaders in the core north, with the hope they can come through for him when the dice is thrown and muscling hands are needed. It’s too early to call how the Jagaban, a veteran of sorts, in the Nigerian political firmament, will surmount the hurdles around Aso Rock, the unquenched rumours about his age and stupendous wealth and the growing opposition from his home front.
But the benefits of his foray into the northern political hemisphere are already yielding some good vibes as former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, who was rumoured to be a parring partner to the Jagaban, before he fell from power, and some top notch politicians are beginning to queue behind him and are openly canvassing his candidature.
…AND THE IGBOS ARE COMING
Like the Igbo proverb goes, all animals with horns were invited to a festival to which even the millipede and snail surprisingly showed up. That is almost the situation in Igbo land currently where every Emeka, Chidi and Ngozi are horning their dance steps to come into the presidential ring.
Former Senate President and Secretary to Government of Federation, Anyim Pius Anyim, was the first to brace the trail, throw his hat into the ring and dared all who cared to listen: whether the Peoples Democratic Party, to which he is a top member, zones the Presidential Spot to the South East or not, he will run…and win. He is, among top Igbos who have shown interest in the race, and who has been able to gather the leaders of PDP in the South East in one room to canvas their support. He it is, who has made the call by the Igbos for a compassionate consideration of a Nigerian of South East origin to vie for, and be the president of Nigeria. He has traversed the entire north, consulting and trying to build a coalition behind his ambition. He is currently pounding the pavements in the South South and South West.
Since the end of the Civil War 52 years ago, only Chief Alex Ekwueme, of blessed memory has come anywhere near the Presidential Villa, as Vice President to President Shehu Shagari. Their seeming marginalisation, which has crystallised into the badly managed IPOB, ESN and Nnamdi Kanu tomfoolery, is chalking up support for the call that people of South Eastern origin should be given the chance to also rule as President of Nigeria.
Another Igbo, the loud mouthed Nyesom Wike, Governor of Rivers State is also criss-crossing the states promoting his ambition to either be the presidential candidate or vice president to whoever eventually emerges the candidate of the PDP. He has the humongous revenue of his state behind his personal ambition, so does Ifeanyi Okowa, another Igbo and governor of Delta State.
On the side of the APC, the roll call is getting long too. The best positioned among them however, seems to be the Transportation Minister, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi, another Igbo from Rivers state. Then there is Orji Uzoh Kalu, the billionaire ex governor of Abia State who was sprung from prison after being jailed for massive corruption perpetuated during his tenure as Governor of the State. Without doubt, he is well connected in the north and though he has not publicly declared his interest in the seat, his consultation drives across the country are all pointers.
Ebonyi state Governor, Dave Umahi, has also come out publicly to signify his ambition to occupy Aso Rock after President Buhari. A new comer to the All Progressives Congress, APC, Umahi appears to be positioning for other positions other than the presidency. He does not seem to have the national connection, the backing of critical stakeholders and cash to back his ambition. Coming from a back water state like Ebonyi, where he is even engaged in a war of attrition with some critical political leaders, his part seems strewn with pebbles.
Not so for Peter Obi who most people are still expecting to come into the race anytime from now. But being a strategic business and political thinker, it does appear that he wants to read the emerging political scenarios correctly before making the move to either contest for the Presidential seat or position for consideration as Vice President.