This Saturday Nigerians will be trooping to the polls to elect the one, they think, should succeed President Muhammadu Buhari as President. After that, it is going to be a nail biting experience, as they wait for the announcement of who has emerged as President between Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Mr Peter Obi of Labour Party and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. It is a three horse race with an appendage. NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso would have played a significant role had he teamed up with any of the three top contenders. But ego and the undying, but misplaced, belief by politicians that they will eventually be victorious even in the face of glaring defeat, is set to make this election a cliffhanger.
But I have my guess how the game will eventually pan out and a winner emerge. It will be a mixture of guesswork and facts on the ground. As we all know, though politics pretends to be a branch of science, human behaviour in any given situation is usually, as the economists would say, a game of, on the one hand or the other. It rests on many strands, human variables which can most times defy predictions.
So here is what I think will happen. It might be very difficult for a winner to emerge on the first ballot this Saturday. There is likely to be a run-off, like many including myself, have said severally. But by the standing of the three major contenders, as at today, Atiku Abubakar is definitely not in the position he would have been had Peter Obi not emerged to shake the tables, so badly. Were the contest to be between Atiku and Tinubu, PDP versus APC alone, given so many variables which we would come to soon, it would have been a clear walk in the park for the PDP candidate. And this is why: most Nigerians are today disgruntled and are vengefully baying for blood, having been impoverished by the grossly incompetent, clannish and better forgotten government of Major General Muhammadu Buhari. The economy is in ruins. Poverty walks on skeletal feet. Despair rules the affairs of the land.
Add to this the many observable failings of the candidate of the APC, Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Add to that the fact that there is an ongoing war currently leading into the elections in the APC. For most Nigerians, Tinubu, who could have been considered a very good candidate, five, ten years ago is today a shadow of himself. Frail, stuttering, forgetful and unable to hold an intelligent conversation for two minutes without major gaffes, Nigerians shudder to think that they will have an evidently unwell President succeed the outgoing one who spent the last eight years, junketing from one hospital to the other in Europe, especially, the United Kingdom.
Opinions are divided on what the possible causes of the observable impediment of the Emilokan believer are. But there is suspicion out there which says that the Jagaban might be suffering from Dementia or Alzheimer. That is why his handlers fight tooth and nail to ensure he never granted any major interview or participate in any town hall meeting or debate. His ambition would have come crashing irrevocably.
Then there is the fear in Christian circles about the possibility of having a Moslem-Moslem ticket, (President and Vice President), at this time when religious harmony is at its direst. The activities of Boko Haram, ISWAP and a coterie of other Islamic groups ravaging the country with terrorism, kidnapping, social and economic upheavals make such a prospect too dangerous to contemplate. Yet Tinubu picks a Moslem of one of the strictest strands of Islam, a man who as Governor of Borno, was found harbouring one of the top Boko Haram terrorists in his house. The fear is palpable and will impact very negatively on an already very bad ticket. So were it a straight fight between him and the candidate of the PDP, without the Peter Obi phenomenon, Atiku would have easily dusted him.
This is more so, given that the North, the Islamic North will tend to favour an Atiku Abubakar, who is one of their own, than a Southern Moslem. Add to that the fact also that the mythic figure of President Buhari in the north is now badly damaged. He has become more of an albatross than a positive on the APC’s desire to retain power at the centre. It is projected that even his home state will fall to the PDP and Atiku this time. So are other APC states. Kano, the major vote base of the party is in tatters, torn among triangular contenders. An Obi is hopeless here as Rabiu Kwankwaso, Atiku Abubakar and Tinubu are neck and neck. Even Kaduna, despite the rascality of El Rufai, their governor, is up for grabs. Tinubu may end up third or fourth behind Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso.
Atiku Abubakar, on the other hand, will have a hard time in the South generally as two of PDP’s votes powerhouses have tilted towards the Labour Party candidate, Obi. It will be a big struggle for Atiku to get 25% votes in two of the five South East States. Even in the six South South states, Obi is clearly a present danger. None for sure can say where the pendulum will swing here even though this is a zone that is traditionally PDP. It will be a three horse race in Edo and Rivers states (Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu). In the remaining four states, only in Cross River State can Tinubu hope to get an appreciable vote. Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom will be battle grounds for Atiku and Obi. Godswill Akpabio will have to pull all the stops and may still fall short of getting Tinubu 25% votes here.
Not so the South West where Tinubu hopes to make a kill. I suspect, however, that he may end up having his balloon of votes burst in Lagos, Oyo and Ogun states which are home to most of the big pentecostal churches in Nigeria. A surprise might just await the Asiwaju in his own turf. Atiku and PDP will end a poor third in Lagos while the real battle will be between Tinubu and Peter Obi. PDP votes in Oyo, Osun and maybe Ondo might see Atiku Abubakar getting 25% votes in at least three of the South West states. Obi on the other hand will get at least 25% votes in at least two of the South West states.
The North central will also be a battle ground where Obi, Tinubu and Atiku will battle for supremacy. Tinubu will come third generally in some states in this zone, but not in Kogi, Nasarawa and Kwara where he may get at least 40% of the votes. The FCT, Abuja, which used to be a PDP zone will fall to Peter Obi with spill over into the urban areas of the Capital. It is a given that the Christian votes in the north will be shared majorly by Obi and Atiku.
Also, if the suspicion holds true, the bulk of the northern votes, in both APC and PDP controlled states might end up with Atiku to the chagrin of Tinubu. Until the votes are collated, no one can say for sure if the boast of the APC governors in the north that they and their people are solidly behind Tinubu will hold true.
For the youths and elites who are projecting and working hard for an Obi presidency, except things change significantly in the next few days, it will be a herculean task for him to get 25% of the votes in 24 states of the federation. His starting late in the race, the lack of a solid structure in the core north to propel his votes and other mitigating factors might just be the dampener on the dreams of Nigerians for a fresh start, and the doing away with of old politicians and their jaundiced political structures.
By my calculations, whether at the first ballot or a repeat, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar might just end up President-elect. But then, it is only God who can of certainty say who the next President of Nigeria will be. Can Obi or Tinubu spring a surprise? Only time will tell.