Mama Taraba + Baba Adamawa – Buhari [3] – Godwin Etakibuebu

By Godwin Etakibuebu

Last week we mentioned the first three categories of Principality and Powers that Atiku Abubakar must necessarily confront on his race to the presidency, come 2019. Former President; Olusegun Obasanjo, with his typical trait of not forgiving; a major characteristic of the Owu people of Egba in Ogun State, remains the first category. Yes, Obasanjo is not God but he has become such a phenomenon and a deity sort of person in the Nigerian political landscape that Baba Adamawa would need the help of the God of Heaven to overcome his former boss if he really wants to be president of Nigeria.

The second category of Principalities and Powers Atiku must overcome on his voyage to the presidency in 2019, as we pointed out last week, is Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu. Unlike Olusegun Obasanjo, Tinubu has no personal hatred for Atiku Abubakar, nor does he belong to the unforgiving section of the Yoruba tribe. Instead, Bola Tinubu is a man with clean and generous heart for people. He is a builder, he is a born-mentor of people, and he is a man with natural hatred for pulling people down.

He is a long-rage planner of political events. His acumen and shrewdness in political maneuvering has no immediate equal. He has the wisdom to tame political predators – if in doubt, ask Olusegun Obasanjo. The latter [Obasanjo] saw pepper in the hands of the former [Tinubu] for eight years, when Obasanjo was president of Nigeria while Tinubu held office as governor of Lagos State. That was the time Tinubu showed his supremacy in the game of political permutation and manipulation.

He understands how to create and sustain his political dynasty. It is for this reason that he [Bola Tinubu] may not be a willing helper to Atiku Abubakar on his tough endeavours to clinching the presidency in 2019. The Bola Tinubu we know, understands better that the sustainability of his political dynasty into the next generation might be jeopardized if he backs Atiku Abubakar [now] against Muhammadu Buhari or any of his [Buhari’s] nominee, in case of some eventuality that could stop Buhari from continuity.

All these calculations are within the precinct of the All Progressive Congress [APC] because Bola Tinubu will not do two things. One, he is not most likely to abandon the APC that he laboured enough in forming to any other new party to be created – be it by the name of mega or extra-mega. Two, Bola Tinubu will never join the People Democratic Party [PDP] though there is no ideological difference between both – PDP and APC.

For Bola Tinubu, “the devil you know is better than the angel you have never met”. He is more at home with this APC, which he built from the scratch in the names of Alliance for Democracy [AD], Action Congress [AC], Action Congress of Nigeria [ACN] and All Progressive Congress [APC]. Atiku Abubakar would never have Bola Tinubu’s backing if he remains in APC because of the analysis given earlier. That leaves him with the option of moving back to PDP, which would be, of course his second time of “crossing the carpet”. And it is for this reason of “going and coming” that we identified the Party [PDP] as the third category of Principalities and Powers that might block his ride to the presidency in 2019 last week. There are more obstacles for Baba Adamawa to overcome if he really wants to be Nigerian’s President as from 2019.

That brings us to the fourth Principalities and Powers. Though this is inanimate, it is almost more powerful than others. It is the two geo-political zones of the North/West and South/West. These are the two geo-political zones that decides who becomes president of Nigeria through the ballot box.
The North/West with its Seven States has the population. It has a unifying religious language that commands totalitarian subjection of all the people of the zone. It carries the symbol of the Khalifah and the Caliphate. It is the only standing and the last authority of Shaihu Usman Dan Fodio; the founder of the Sokoto Caliphate [born December 15, 1754 and died April 20, 1817]. Disobedience to a standing order of the Khalifah is never a matter of consideration amongst the aborigines. An indigene of this zone can only question the Caliphate’s order to his/her peril.

Will Atiku Abubakar get this zone’s nod to run for the presidency if, for any reason, Muhammadu Buhari fails to make it for the second tenure? I doubt this very much as the APC, fully backed by Bola Tinubu and his South/West Power, would articulate and sustain the candidacy of Aminu Waziri Tambuwal [current governor of Sokoto State] to the detriment of El Rufai [current governor of Kaduna State] and Rabiu Kwankwaso [former governor of Kano State].
The South/West with its Six States has the population [actually more than all other zones in Nigeria]. It is politically more enlightened than all the remaining zones of the federation. Above all however is what we can call “Yoruba Parapo” – a sort of solidarity that will see them giving all their votes, under a leadership that they believed [which Bola Tinubu has proved after the late Chief Jeremiah Obafemi Awolowo] to whosever the leadership points. We have said it enough that Atiku Abubakar may not enjoy this confidence despite the fact that his first wife; Titi Abubakar, is of Yoruba stock from Ilesha.

The last category of the Principalities and Powers for consideration would be some foreign countries – America specifically. We all witnessed how American government helped, using all means, in removing Goodluck Jonathan from power in Nigeria though President Jonathan carried his baggage of political naivety and misadventures. What we are hearing from the grapevine, about American’s government views on Atiku Abubakar, may not be too palatable to the latter.

The reason for the relocation of his fourth wife; Jennifer Iwenjora [now known as Hajia Jamila Atiku-Abubakar] from the State of Maryland in the United States of America to the United Arab Emirate a few years ago may not be given too much publicity by the American government but tongues are wagging that the Yankees may not want to back the candidature of Atiku Abubakar for the Nigerian presidency.

As l draw the curtain on this exercise, l want to make it abundantly clear that l have spoken thus far as a political technocrat [because l am never a politician and l can never be one], taking my little understanding of the Nigerian political terrain to the market place of the people. Ipso facto, there is nothing of absolutism about my presentations, more so when l, as a Christian, know for sure that it is only God that makes leaders.
Yes, the obstacles on the path of Baba Adamawa to the presidency are physically there but if God says he would be, there is nobody on earth that can stop him. God can raise many Mama Taraba for Baba Adamawa against Muhammadu Buhari, in becoming the next president, against all odds. And that is just God for you!
Godwin Etakibuebu, a veteran journalist, wrote from Lagos.