By Evaristus Bassey
Nigeria is strategic to various interests. With the ongoing elections, various powers would already have been at play to engage for outcomes favouring their interests. What we do know is that unlike the former Christian nations of Europe that have become quite secularized, many of the rich Islamic nations are active in promoting their religion and are quite interested in the dominance of Islam worldwide. For instance, while Saudi Arabia does not allow the building of churches on Saudi soil, it sponsors the construction of mosques all around the world and supports many organizations worldwide that propagate the religion. It is also common knowledge that crises in Islamic nations offer an opportunity for the spread of the faith, as displaced citizens find ways to migrate to non-Muslim territories and entrench the faith there. The refugee situation in Lebanon in the early 1970s led to a change in the demographics of that country, such that the once majority Christian nation of Lebanon now has a majority Muslim population of 63%. In the recent past, the Syrian refugee crisis became another opportunity for Islam to spread to parts of Europe that opened its doors. And as soon as Muslims reach a certain threshold, they begin to agitate for rights that would upturn the secular ethos of their hosts and entrench ‘Sharia’.
According to Pankej Saxena, “The lesson to learn here is this: no war with Islam is local. Islam always thinks globally. Local majority of non-Muslims means nothing, especially if you are in a geographical region surrounded by Muslim countries.” We may think that the ongoing elections are a local Nigerian issue, but it is likely that apart from the economic interests of China and the West, the Islamic nations have a strong influence on the matter. While China and the West may be interested in how Nigeria profits them economically, Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations may be more interested in how the gains Buhari has made for Islam in Nigeria can be sustained and upscaled. Severally President Buhari has been voted one of the 100 most influential Muslims in the globe. Would he allow this accolade slide by without leaving a legacy for his faith? Could he freely hand over to the obvious Christian in the race if he truly won and therefore leave an admirable and enduring legacy? Or was everything done to ensure that the popular candidate that is Christian didn’t get declared even if the real votes showed that he truly won?
I know that for many Muslims, the Muslim-Muslim ticket was an existential affair. It seemed to some that if that ticket did not win, then Muslims had lost the battle of ‘supremacy’ in Nigeria. It was a self-inflicted and unnecessary ultimatum, much like when a wife tells the husband to choose between her and the game of football he is watching! Whereas many well-meaning Muslims were against it, many Islamic clerics promoted the M/M ticket and made it seem as if it was the end of Islam in Nigeria if it didn’t sail through. It isn’t surprising therefore if the end had to justify the means. On one hand someone as intellectually sound as El Rufai called Peter Obi a Nollywood actor in his TVC interview when asked to respond to polls that put Peter Obi ahead, and made it seem as if everyone in Kano or Sokoto is unidirectional in thinking, and automatically resents Peter Obi just because he is not from the north! And you wonder why people like El Rufai would think that everyone in the north is bigoted!
The tragic thing is that the regional and religious gladiators never allow the process to be transparent because transparency is antithetical to their feudalistic principles. Whether it is census or elections, they allegedly doctor outcomes. From under-aged voters to a cross section of people being disenfranchised, to non-use of BVAS for accreditation, and importation of foreigners as voters, everything is done to gain an unfair advantage, and they shove it down your throat!
It is true that it had to take a strong personality like Tinubu to wrestle the APC ticket from the cabal, otherwise the cabal may have already made up its mind to give it to a northerner despite Buhari’s eight years. It may have taken a lot of effort and resources from Tinubu to even have the election result go his way despite the fact that at some point the northern establishment may have conceded that it was more important to manage Nigeria’s diversity by returning the ticket to the south. Apart from being a man of huge resources, the fact that Tinubu is Muslim certainly helped the matter. Otherwise, how do you bypass present glory in Osinbajo to past glory in Tinubu? Perhaps if Peter Obi had been declared outright, the sponsors of mayhem would have activated their cells to have violence erupt across the north and Abuja. But it is a good thing that their choice was declared, and they did not have to kill innocent people. Now that doubts are emerging that Tinubu actually the election, well-meaning northerners should be alarmed at the open steal and set the grounds for a conversation.
There are those who have sworn that an Igbo man will never rule Nigeria. And sometimes these are supposedly highly educated although entitled men. And I ask: so even as it is becoming obvious that Peter Obi won the election, he would be denied the right because he is an Igbo man? For it seems to me that some of these personalities who pose as statesmen would readily sponsor terrorists and even the military to takeover government just to protect their narratives!
Are we ready to make progress as a nation? Can we claim to be a democracy if we uphold disenfranchisement as a sacred duty? The nations that practice true democracy experience great advancement because the ballot is a tool of accountability. It is the ballot that gives every adult a sense of being a stakeholder. Unfortunately, we are not a tribal monarchy like the UAE and so no one tribe or ethnic group can claim perpetual succession to the presidency nor are we fortunate to be homogenous. If we don’t learn to restrain our piety from encroaching on the fundamental rights of others, how can we live together as one nation? If the majority will do the voting only for a select minority to do as they please, isn’t that a feudal ‘democracy’? How can any person of any religious persuasion be comfortable with such injustice? This is why the restoration of the mandate so glaringly taken from Peter Obi must be done by the Nigerian powers that be.
Before now elections used to be between the various parties and the rest of us did siddon-look. We didn’t care whomever they imposed on us as winners, since it was a game of who rigged the most, using our absence. This time the Nigerian people have spoken, and these voices are Christians, Muslims, northerners, south westerners, southeasterners, young and old, especially young. And it will be a very tough and unsuccessful attempt to suppress the emerging voices.