Why Donald Trump would win Kamala Harris – By Magnus Onyibe

The Democratic National Convention (DNC), starting on Monday, August 19, in Chicago, is set to see Vice President Kamala Harris officially accept her nomination as the party’s presidential candidate. Harris has secured over the necessary 1,976 delegate votes needed to represent the DNC in the presidential election against former President Donald Trump from the Republican National Convention (RNC) on November 5, 2024.

Through a virtual roll call, Harris had already received the endorsement of the DNC stakeholders before the convention began. However, this development did not immediately alleviate the pressure on President Biden, who was forced to end his re-election campaign following a poor debate performance against Trump. But his traducers did not stop there as they initially also demanded that he should resign and exit the White House effective immediately.

This situation echoes the tale of Oliver Twist, who perpetually asks for more. That is because not a few  Republicans had been calling for Biden to resign from the presidency since he had conceded his re-election bid to Harris, suggesting he was unfit to continue in office.

Fortunately, the initial calls for Biden’s resignation, fueled by the notion that withdrawing from re-election indicated his incapacity, have subsided. Although he has about five months left in his presidency, Biden has recovered from a recent bout with COVID-19 and even participated in a joint campaign event with Harris in Maryland on August 15.

President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election on Sunday, July 21, 2024, led to calls for him to step down from the presidency, an unprecedented move, particularly because he was pressured by his party members and allies.This decision mirrors President Lyndon Johnson’s choice in 1968 to forgo re-election, although Johnson completed his term rather than resigning.

In a twist of fate, the COVID-19 pandemic, which initially helped Biden win the presidency in 2020, seemed to have undermined his re-election bid less than 90 days before the November 5 election. The pandemic was crucial to Biden’s 2020 victory and Trump’s exit from office, but it now appears to be Biden’s Achilles’ heel. His poor debate performance against Trump, which he admitted was dismal, intensified calls for him to withdraw from the race, and he eventually succumbed to pressure from allies like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Ironically, the same pandemic that boosted Biden’s 2020 campaign is now contributing to his inability to seek re-election, potentially aiding Trump’s return to the White House. Although Biden did not specifically cite COVID-19 as the reason for his withdrawal, the pandemic’s negative impact on his campaign, including his abysmal debate performance when he faced- off with former President Trump in a CNN-organized TV debate and the resulting criticism for his subpar output, influenced his decision to step aside.

Several factors contributed to President Biden’s declining approval ratings and his decision not to seek re-election. Public opinion soured over his foreign policy, particularly due to the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the surge of illegal migration into the U.S., and perceived excessive U.S. support for Ukraine and Israel in their respective conflicts. The recent escalation in the Middle East, including the assassination of key figures such as Hamas leader in lran and Hezebah commander in Lebanon , the potential for broader conflict involving Russia and Iran in what might stretch into a third world war, has further strained the situation and democrats under pressure to end the two conflicts-lsraeli/Hamas and Russia/Ukraine wars before they degenerate into a  conflict of global dimension.

Although Biden initially received praise for his handling of foreign policy during his 2019-2020 campaign, however his approval rating had dropped to about 38% by February this year. While COVID-19 was not the only reason for his withdrawal, it significantly impacted his presidency and political environment. Consequently, Biden decided to step aside for Vice President Kamala Harris, whose nomination has rejuvenated the Democratic National Convention (DNC) and restored enthusiasm for the party’s 2024 campaign.

Coincidentally, the RNC candidate, Donald Trump, has also gained momentum. This boost followed President Biden’s poor performance in their first debate and Trump’s ability to maintain a strong public profile despite ongoing legal issues, including a failed assassination attempt. The would-be assassin’s bullet merely grazed Trump’s ear, which many supporters and undecided voters interpreted as divine protection, especially as Trump instinctively moved his head away from the shot aimed at his forehead.

As Trump celebrated these developments, President Biden stepped down, leading to a surge in support for Vice President Kamala Harris and reinvigorating the DNC. Recent polls show Harris in a tight race with Trump. While Harris’s campaign slogan, “We are not going back,” suggests a commitment to preventing Trump’s return to the White House, some analysts argue it lacks impact compared to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), which may not be as effective as in previous elections.

Despite the current enthusiasm for Harris, some pundits caution that the excitement may be short-lived. Historical patterns suggest that the political landscape can shift rapidly, and the initial boost for Harris might not last beyond the convention, which started on August 19.

In 2016, few predicted that Donald Trump would make it to the White House, with most polls favoring Hillary Clinton. Despite Clinton winning the popular vote by about 3 million votes, Trump won the presidency by securing 307 electoral college votes to Clinton’s 227. The US electoral system is so complex that although Clinton received 65,853,514 popular votes, while Trump received 62,984,514 of the popular votes, Trump won the contest.

That 2016  election marked the fifth time in U.S. history that the winning candidate lost the popular vote, and Trump’s victory in that contest against all odds suggests he might repeat that success in 2024. There is a conspiracy theory that Clinton’s loss was influenced by key electoral college voters who were opposed to the idea of a Clinton presidential dynasty, akin to the Kennedy family or the Bushes.

Had Clinton won, it would have added a husband-and-wife presidential pair to the list of political dynasties, including the Kennedys and the Bushes. Given the political dynamics and underlying racial and gender biases in the U.S., some argue that while there is public support for Kamala Harris, there may be underlying resistance due to her being a female and a Black candidate, reflecting deeper societal biases.

In summary, there are likely many voters in the U.S. who may harbor latent racial biases and might not vote for Kamala Harris due to her being both a woman and a person of color. While former President Barack Obama successfully engaged younger voters in 2008 through social media—who judged candidates by their abilities rather than race—Harris’s campaign relies on this demographic to support her. The challenge remains whether these younger voters can influence their parents, who may hold biases against Harris. Plus how many of the youths, particularly university students are willing to overlook the administration’s support for the ongoing massacre of Palestinians in Gaza by Israel even though Hamas is the agent provocateur?

Obama faced the challenge of being a Black man, and despite extensive efforts by previous Black leaders like Rev. Al Sharpton and Rev. Jesse Jackson, Obama was the first to succeed in winning the presidency. Hillary Clinton, the first female nominee from a major party, also failed to win despite being Caucasian.

Given these factors which still exist as formidable barriers, it’s doubtful that Harris will overcome the same obstacles. Her bid for the presidency in 2024 may face significant hurdles, akin to the proverbial difficulty of a camel passing through the eye of a needle. Although Harris has gained momentum since Biden’s withdrawal, this enthusiasm is expected to wane after the current convention.

The concern arises from the fact that Kamala Harris will face realpolitik challenges when she steps out of her scripted, teleprompter-driven comfort zone into unscripted interactions with news reporters. These journalists will likely press her on various aspects of her tenure as Attorney General of California, her time as a senator, and her current role as Vice President. Apart from young democrats who are on her side because she did not want Biden due to his old age,  there is no evidence that blacks or women who should be natural constituents are with her in significant numbers.

While Harris’s team has preemptively addressed potential questions through social media, this structured approach may not shield her from direct questioning by reporters. The upcoming television debate between Harris and former President Trump on September 10 could be a critical moment. If Harris fails to perform effectively, especially given her background as a former prosecutor, it could significantly damage her campaign, much like Biden’s poor performance against Trump on June 27, 2024, which led to the end of his re-election bid.

How would she defend the multiple conflicting political positions that she has taken in her two decades-long political career which make her look like a chameleon that’s always changing its color to blend with the environment it finds itself in?

The key question is whether a debate between Trump and Harris could mark a political downfall for Harris, the first female, and woman of color to become Vice President and a major party’s presidential candidate. Trump’s supporters, who view him as divinely chosen to return to the White House, are driven by his continued popularity despite being the most criticized and vilified presidential candidate since his 2020 loss. This popularity persists even amidst criticisms of his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the numerous court cases that he has been slammed some of which he has received judgement in his favor.

Ron Klain, former Chief of Staff to President Biden, recently highlighted that the White House did not effectively promote Kamala Harris, potentially by design. Biden’s body language had suggested he might not seek re-election due to concerns about his age during the 2019 campaign against Trump.

Although it was anticipated that Harris would replace Biden in the 2024 race, this created friction between them after they assumed office in 2020 and Biden’s intentions to run again became evident.

Ultimately, COVID-19 and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s concerns about the DNC not being able to take control of the House if Biden remained as the candidate led to Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race.

Harris now faces the challenging task of securing the presidency against the formidable Donald Trump, who has experience from the 2016 and 2020 campaigns and remains a strong contender. Despite Harris’s boost from Biden’s endorsement, she is not inheriting strong voter support from a president whose approval ratings had plummeted to around 38% before he stepped down. Meanwhile, Trump, known for his ability to come from behind, is likely to leverage his support from evangelicals and MAGA supporters to mount a strong campaign.

Given that Kamala Harris has not faced the rigorous challenges of a presidential campaign like Donald Trump, who is running for the third time, and that she did not go through the traditional party primaries but was selected by President Biden, her optimism about winning the election is puzzling. That is more so because she is not enjoying overwhelming support of her natural constuents -women folk and blacks or colored who nurse the grudge that as District Attorney in San Francisco she is alleged to have the penchant for jailing blacks on crimes that could have ordinarily been deemed unserious .

According to PEW Research, 63% of Americans find that televised debates help them assess a presidential candidate’s capabilities. However, Harris has not participated in debates or unscripted media interviews since her ascent to the top of the ticket roughly a month ago, which did not involve the usual primary process. Her reaction to tough questions, such as when she was confronted by a Democrat during one her campaign events about the Gaza conflict and how the U.S. is complicit , suggests she may struggle with probing questions from journalists, especially given her record of shifting positions. This could undermine her rising popularity before the November 5 election.

Moreover, despite the DNC’s portrayal of Trump as a threat to democracy and accusations of racist comments (which he denies), swing voters are increasingly seeing Trump as a candid politician who speaks plainly about issues. Trump’s straightforwardness may help him regain momentum, as he provides clear positions on various topics, in contrast to more evasive politicians. This directness is a double-edged sword: it appeals to some voters but alienates others due to his blunt demeanor.

An often-overlooked fact is that while President Biden has been involved in politics for about fifty years, former President Trump has been active in the political arena for only about a decade.

Remarkably, since launching his presidential bid against Senator Hillary Clinton in 2016 and winning the presidency, Trump has become the RNC’s presidential candidate for a third time. His charismatic leadership has given him greater influence over the party than any other figure, including Ronald Reagan, and surpasses even the Bush family’s influence with its father-and-son presidential dynasty.

In contrast, Kamala Harris began her political career in 2002 when she ran for District Attorney of San Francisco and won. This marks about twenty-two years of political experience, double the time Trump has spent in politics.

If Kamala Harris does not win the presidential election on November 5, which in my reckoning seems quite probable, she still has time to try again in the future. Unlike Hillary Clinton, who was 68 when she ran for president, Harris is only 59, giving her a decade more to pursue another presidential bid before she becomes too old to run.

Harris can leverage the goodwill she’s building now as a foundation for a future campaign. After all, President Biden, who has just concluded his 50-year political career, made several attempts after being a senator and vice president before finally winning in 2020, partly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic which helped him take over the White House from then President Donal J.Trump who would likely return as the 47th president of the USA.

Many Nigerians have formed prayer groups to support Trump’s return to the White House, believing he is more favorable to legal immigrants and anti-abortion policies, as seen in his support for overturning Roe v. Wade. With the election still several months away, the wait feels long, and many are anxiously anticipating the outcome.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria. To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.