Consulting firm Energy Aspects Ltd is forecasting about 90,000 barrels a day of petrol (PMS) production for the Dangote oil refinery in the fourth quarter of 2024.
At full output, the refinery is expected to be able to produce about 330,000 barrels a day (bpd) of petrol (about half of its capacity), according to Randy Hurburun, senior refinery analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects Ltd.
The 90,000 bpd output will be equivalent to about 36% of Nigeria’s 2023 demand.
Nigeria received close to 250,000 barrels a day in petrol imports last year, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd.
This means the Refinery will not solve the problem of fuel queues currently being experienced in the country.
Key to the plant’s gasoline output is a unit called a reformer, which produces blendstock for petrol. That’s started operating, with gasoline production expected to begin by the end of the week, Devakumar Edwin, Dangote Industries Ltd.’s vice president for oil and gas, said.
Key to raising output further is another unit called a residue fluid catalytic cracker.
The refinery will blend naphtha with reformate from the reformer to make gasoline that’s suitable for the west African market.
The President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, this week presented the first sample of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol.
Energy Aspects forecasts the refinery could increase petrol output to almost 250,000, but only by the second half of 2025.