By Emman Ovuakporie
The uproar and confusion that surrounded the emergence of Governor Godwin Obaseki as the flag bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP in the scheduled guber election for September in Edo State is enough for him to defeat Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu if politics were mathematical.
But no politics is not based on mere mathematics because surprises are part and parcel of politics.
After a long battle with his godfather, Adams Oshiomhole, Obaseki finally pitched tent with the PDP to contest the Edo guber polls.
Oshiomhole ensured he was disqualified from partaking in APC’s guber primary.
The confusion eventually swallowed Oshiomhole who was suspended by the APC and eventually sacked as its chairman on Thursday.
On the other hand, Ize-Iyamu had to contend with many legal battles to finally get the APC ticket.
The issue of not been a member of the party was one court issue and this was surmounted and his election ratified by APC as the authentic candidate of the party.
All said and done but the question on the lips of Edolites is who going to occupy Denis Osadebey Government House for the next four years.
In the three senatorial districts of the State both contestants have a commanding presence.
Ize-Iyamu is a full time politician while until 2016 Obaseki was a technocrat who helped then governor Oshiomhole to manage the coffers of the state.
As at today, Obaseki has tasted the bitter pills of politics and is now a full blown politician with long horns.
A PEEP AT THIER STANDINGS IN THE THREE SENATORIAL DISTRICTS
Edo Central Senatorial District:
Edo Central is the most marginalised district in the State. For eight years Oshiomhole left them in the wilderness without any remarkable appointment both at the Federal or State level.
It has the least voters population in the state but the people are very vibrant and had constantly supported the PDP.
They paid dearly for this and Esan people remained unrepentant as they continued to vote for PDP.
Obaseki is said to have promised the Essn nation that he would handover to the Edo Central after his second term.
This promise is enough to ginger them to massively vote for Obaseki hoping that he won’t behave like other regular politicians.
Ize-Iyamu too is popular in the senatorial district but can’t take the risk of making such a promise but a vigorous campaign can turn the table in his favor.
But the pastor has to do a lot of footwork to make a remarkable impact in Esan land.
Edo North Senatorial District:
This is the domain of Ize-Iyamu’s godfather the great Oshiomhole.
Under normal circumstances this District ought to be the footstool of Ize-Iyamu but no, Obaseki’s deputy, Comrade Phillip Shaibu is also from the zone and he will match Oshiomhole and Ize-Iyamu fire for fire.
Edo South Senatorial District:
This zone of the state has the highest voters population capable of turning the tables at any given election in the state
This zone is the real battle ground that will determine the outcome of the guber election in the state.
Coincidentally, both contestants are from this zone that is a major determinant of the election results.
Obaseki heavily relying on the incumbency factor may just coast to victory and return to Denis Osadebey Government House.
But as it was stated here earlier, politics is not mathematics that you can readily get a calculated answer.
Ize-Iyamu is said to have a well greased executive in all the wards of Edo South because he had gone through the terrain while contesting as a PDP candidate against Obaseki.
The exco is still very much alive and this could be a dangerous signal to the Obaseki camp.
Both contestants may have to assert enough energy on this zone of the state to win the guber election.
In this zone, Obaseki has an edge because of the massive support he enjoys from the critical stakeholders in the PDP.
Ize-Iyamu has a good followership too in the determining zone of the state because of his grassroots