Emma Esinnah
Unless the North really wants the Presidency to go to the South in 2023, it would only take an act of God for anybody from the southern part of the country to become the next president of Nigeria. And you won’t blame northerners for it. Southerners will do it to themselves. And they have already begun.
One of the earliest signs of this self-immolation is the recent announcement of the defection of the Ebonyi State governor, Dr. David Umahi, to the All Progressives Congress (APC). For many observers, Governor Umahionly formalized his defection because for a long time, he has not hidden his sympathies for the APC. In fact, in the run-up to the 2019 general elections he had been accused of planning to defect to the APC. So, the announcement did not shock many political observers.
Of course, he is not hiding his reason for leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). He wants to contest for President under APC, where he thinks he stands a chance to get the ticket because the “body-language” of the APC at the moment seems to suggest that the party would zone the presidency to the South. What is not known yet is whether Dr. Umahihad a good chat with former Governor of Akwa Ibom, and current Minister of Niger Delta, Senator Godswill Akpabio. Umahineeds to find out if Akpabio is happier today in APC than he was as a Senate Minority Leader under PDP. Umahi also needs to confirm if what Akpabio has today amount to robustly improved political fortunes over what he had prior to his defection. Above all,Umahi needs to find out from Akpabio whether those talking to him or those he is talking to are the same APC kingmakers Akpabio consulted with before leaving PDP.
Having said that, it must be clear to all that Umahi’s defection to APC has weakened the Southern bloc and their interest in the APC. The South will yet be weaker as more and more of them begin to announce their interest in the presidency. The sheer number of people from the South seeking the ticket will be so many that they will have paved way whosoever from the North shows interest.
Without consulting any oracle, you can say with a measure of certainty that from the South East alone, and on the platform of APC alone and for the 2023 presidential ticket alone, you should also expect Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu to throw his hat into the ring. You should soon expect an announcement from OwelleRochas Okorocha. Won’t Chief Jim Nwobodo try again? And who will Arthur Eze support? With all of this, there will be nothing like South East bloc vote at an APC national congress.
And come to the South West: Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu will come out. He didn’t formAPC for Buhari alone to rule for eight years, and for Tinubu to continue as occasional visitor to the Aso Villa. This time he is likely to seek a four–year tenancy (with option of renewal) there. Don’t discount Pastor Tunde Bakare. And if the same people speaking to Umahi speak to Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, they might decide to try their luck.
And from the South South, it is unclear if former Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi wants to remain a kingmaker or wants to try to be king himself. And given the spirit of optimism that drives every politician, Akpabio might want to try his luck also.
Soon, you will have at least 15 figures from the South seeking the ticket. Of course, they will be sharing the South votes. So, even if APC “zones” the position to the South, the South would be so divided that if “Idris Mohammed” from Yobe State decides to contest against the ‘well-qualified’ southern aspirants, he will eventually get the ticket, and may ultimately become president.
As commonsensical as it sounds, the politicians, especially those of southern extraction are listening to a different music. As projected in APC, so would it be in PDP. But the politicians are so self-opinionated and self-important that none wants to step down for the other. The result is not that each of them will self-destruct, but also mutually destruct.
But the sad part is that it will not end there. These Southern politicians whose lack of tact and narrow-mindedness would cost the ticket will begin to fan the embers of ethnicity.
“Ogbeni” would say he failed because “Okoro” did not support him. So, Igbos hate his people! Umahi would say that Tinubu has never liked him and that is why the “Igbos” (suddenly it would be the Igbos, not him) did not get the ticket. And Okoroacha would say Rotimi Amaechi sabotaged him because the Ikwerres of Rivers State do not like the Igbos.
That is how politicians would use their frustration to cause ethnic tension among the nationalities of the Southern Nigeria.
But can this situation be remedied? Hopefully. This time, I think it is not only the apex cultural organizations, but ethnic-based professional bodies. The professionals, especially those from the South East, know how much community burden they bear, just because of bad governance. So, they have an enlightened self-interest not to continue to look away.
Recently, the slogan, “Handshake Across the Niger”, signaling partnership among the nationalities of the South. Perhaps, this is the time that even professionals, not just cultural leaders in the South, should give meaning to it. The agenda is not the wrest power from the North, as some people say. No, that is too myopic. But to ensure that aspirants from the South who do not stand much chance should step down early enough, so that the Southern bloc votes would not be dissipated at the at the party Congresses. And does it mean that the North does not have good candidates? Far from that. The only problem is that if the Party decides to zone the position to the South, the very good candidates from the North would like to respect that position, meaning that only renegades from the North would stand. And because the South is so divided against itself, the renegade from the North might receive higher votes and defeat the super aspirant from any part of the South. That way, the candidate that would emerge would not be the best from the North and not from the South either.
So, for the sake of our collective future,professional groups, as well as apex cultural organizations might go beyond their call of duty and act as guidance groups to ensure that the right people emerge as candidates, by helping to mid-wife an accord in the interest of the nation. And the time to start is now!