(ANALYSIS) Tenth NASS: Will Tambuwal’s trump card resurfaces as Tinubu meets critical stakeholders today

…the Senate has a sitting president that’s not in a hurry to leave

… those eyeing Lawan and Gbajabiamila’s jobs

… will the zoning arrangements fly?

The battle for National Assembly leadership has begun after INEC declared APC’s presidential candidate, Ahmed Tinubu President-elect.

The President-Elect is expected to meet all lawmakers of the APC that already has a majority in both chambers. This is not going to be an easy task for the new APC government.

In this analysis, TheNewsGuru.com, (TNG) will x-ray the good, the bad and ugly sides of what may likely transpire as there are signals that the ghost of 2011 and 2015 may haunt the upper legislature and the APC as a party in Nigeria.

The zoning arrangements may become the biggest obstacle that will give vent for a repeat of the events of 2011and 2015 when the present Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal against all odds emerged victorious after the Goodluck Jonathan administration had openly zoned speakership to the South West.

Also in 2015, Dr Bukola Saraki had to keep a vigil to ensure he emerges as he was not an anointed child of President Muhamadu Buhari but he had the backing of the opposition party, PDP and he finally emerged the Senate President with an opposition party Deputy Senate President in Ike Ekweremadu.

This time around, the Senate is not spared too as the present Senate President, Ahmad Lawan has miraculously returned via a court verdict.

This may likely resurface in the tenth Senate as whoever controls the minorities with a little tilt to the majority party may finally emerge Senate President.

As it stands, the South West has the presidency and North East the position of the Vice President same zone with the current Senate President.

But this development definitely will not raise any issue because in the ninth Assembly, the South West produced both the Vice President and the speaker of the House of Representatives. This is definitely a pointer to the fact that zoning might not be an issue in the Senate.

In the House of Representatives, zoning and religion may not be an issue too as the outgoing government had a Muslim Muslim ticket in the Green Chamber which sailed through effortlessly. Both Gbajabiamila and Wase were both Muslims.

As for zoning, it may not be an issue as Gbajabiamila and the outgoing Vice President were both from south west.

All the lawmakers from the six geo-political zones if they so choose can gun for Gbajabiamila’s job but here comes the real power play expected to be championed by the party.

If the party zones it to the North East, which is the same zone with the incoming Vice President there is definitely a reference point which is Gbajabiamila.

The North West and the North Central may decide not to sit on the fence and produce their own speakership candidates.

As for the southern zones, the only position available in the House of Representatives is that of the deputy speaker. Since 1999, the house has produced three southerners, Femi Gbajabiamila, Dimeji Bankole and Patricia Ekaette shared the speakership position from 2007-2011 all from same zone.

Other southern zones only had the opportunity of producing deputy speakers which is fast becoming their birthright.

But it’s not going to be an easy sail for APC to wrap issues up in the name of zoning as the minority parties have a pivotal role to play if they decide to speak in one voice.

In the Senate, the Labour Party (LP) has a total of 6 seats while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) now has 28 and the All Progressives Congress (APC) controls the majority with 57 seats so far from results released by INEC.

Going by the past records of the Senate it’s virtually impossible for all the senators to vote for a particular candidate without a genuine accord.

The minority parties have a role to play in electing the next Senate President and whoever puts the minority parties into a fold may likely carry the day. The party after zoning really has a little role to play and in the Senate there’s incumbent factor which cannot be underestimated.

HoR:

Out of the 325 results released by the apex electoral umpire the ruling APC still retains the majority in the house with 162 seats while the major opposition party, PDP, has 102 members-elect. The LP and NNPP have 34 and 18 members-elect respectively.

As it is, the minority parties have 152 seats that does not indicate that ruling party speakership aspirants will ignore them as whoever gets the largest chunk of the minority lawmakers may coast to victory with zoning or no zoning arrangements.

The most popular aspirant with the right language would upturn any zoning formula put together by the ruling party. This is one ugly part the ruling party must put into consideration as they meet today to decide their zoning arrangements.

Those eyeing Lawan’s job:

The Senate President definitely is not going to be a pushover because a sizeable number of the senators returned.

Former governor of Abia State,Orji Uzor Kalu, a ranking member is said to be very interested and may emerge the anointed candidate. At this stage anointment may either serve as positive or negative catalyst as senators are more independent minded than their colleagues in the Green Chamber.

It has an array of retired former governors and deputy governors who can choose to be firm if they so wish.

Ex-Governor of Akwa Ibom also known as the uncommon governor and uncommon minister Godswill Akpabio is also eyeing Lawan’s job. If he emerges SP then it’s going to be another rubber stamping regime like his predecessor.

Another senator who looks good to take over Lawan’s job is Senator Barau Jibrin largely described as a gentleman with an unblemished records of successes as chairman Senate committee on Appropriation who survived the NNPP tsunami in Kano.

He is from North West, the zone of the outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari, if Senators elected into the tenth Senate are truly independent, Barau may just clinch the coveted seat of Senate President.

In the House of Representatives as usual it’s a market place as more aspirants may flood the scene.

For now, the current deputy speaker, Idris Wase is positioning himself to take over from Gbajabiamila. He is from the North Central but his records as deputy speaker may speak for him in the speakership race.

Another known figure in the House is Hon Aliyu Betara, the current Reps Committee Chairman on Appropriation, an accountant from the North East who knows his way among lawmakers. He’s definitely not going to be a pushover although in the Green Chamber anything goes.

Conclusively, the atmospherics as depicted for now is that zoning arrangements in both chambers would be haunted by the experiences of 2011 when a Tambuwal rubbished his party’s zoning formula but emerged victorious and helped to finally nailed the PDP.

The 2015 experience of Yakubu Dogara and Femi Gbajabiamila that Dogara won by the whiskers.

And finally, the 2015 experience that produced a Saraki despite APC zoning it to the North East.

Today’s meeting if not properly handled by the APC critical stakeholders may just be a nullity.

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