…will Atiku or Tinubu triumph?
… expected factors to shape outcome of guber poll
…the Tinubu and Aregbesola challenge
As state of Osun citizens prepare to vote in another governor on Saturday, it is going to be a straight two-horse race between two political foes who had encountered each other in an election that was declared inconclusive in 2018.
TheNewsGuru com, (TNG) in this analysis will take a sharp and deep analysis of the major determinants of the guber poll that’s an acid test for two presidential flag bearers of Nigeria’s two major political parties, the APC and the PDP.
Serving Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress APC and Senator Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party PDP are known political foes who cannot easily ignore each other.
While Oyetola has the Jagaban, Asiwaju Oba the lion of Bourdilion, former Governor of Lagos State Bola Ahmed Tinubu and APC presidential candidate in the 2023 general elections as an ‘egbon’ who in the first place miraculously made it possible for him to become a governor in 2018, Senator Ademola Adeleke is from a family arguably adjudged as one of the richest in Osun State.
Apart from having a billionaire family background, his brother in-law, Atiku Abubakar, the PDP presidential flag-bearer in the 2023 elections, former Senate President, Dr Bukola Saraki who is also a brother, PDP governors, his nephew, talented music icon, Davido are solidly behind him to match the Jagaban factor vote for vote, cash for cash to change the narrative tomorrow (Saturday).
DETERMINING FACTORS;
There are 30 local governments and three senatorial districts in Osun State properly oiled and serviced by Oyetola. The three sitting senators of the State are of APC extraction.
Definitely this is a big minus to the PDP camp of Adeleke if he has not done enough ground work to strategically put his trusted men in the senatorial districts to galvanise votes for him.
This could signal a massive defeat for PDP if the three senators are on ground definitely they will mobilise who is who in their districts to rubbish PDP.
THE TINUBU FACTOR:
Osun State is Tinubu’s ancestral home, the candidate is his blood brother and above all Tinubu grabbed the state from PDP and enthroned his prodigy Rauf Aregbesola the current Minister of Interior as Governor.
Osun is like Lagos to Tinubu, a defeat by the PDP in his ancestral home will amount to a collosal loss as same could be replicated at the national level next year.
Armed with this fear factor, the Jagaban will relocate mountains to ensure Osun is delivered on Saturday. Anything short of that spells doom at the national level.
The south western enclave of Nigeria is predominantly an APC affair with five serving governors at the beck and call of Tinubu, nothing short of a victory must prevail.
THE ATIKU FACTOR:
Atiku is related to Osun by marriage. His wife Titi is a daughter of the soil and this could help in no small way. Atiku on the other hand knows that a victory in Osun could translate to half a victory for him in 2023.
But coming from abroad 72hours to the battle might not be enough to help him mobilise soldiers for Adeleke to unseat Oyetola who just last week paid Osun pensioners outstanding N1.6billion payments. This definitely was a political strategy to make the oldies show up at the polling booths on Saturday.
THE CASH FOR VOTE FACTOR:
Take it or leave it, cash for vote is the weapon with which Nigerian politicians deploy to win elections in this clime.
Trader money was introduced to make it look legal in Nigeria but certainly no sane Nigerian will venture into politics at any level without having a war chest to conquer the electorate.
Both major parties, PDP and APC will match each other to deliver cash to garner votes on Saturday.
The apex electoral body, INEC on Wednesday has declared that cash for vote does not fall within its purview and the security operatives who are very hungry may just look the other way while politicians grease the palms of voters.
This is a critical determinant in the Osun guber election as cash will flow in all directions.
THE INEC FACTOR:
There were 1, 256, 569 PVCs produced for registered voters in Osun State ahead of the distribution exercise.
By the end of the exercise on 9th March, 697, 574 cards (55.5%) were collected by verified holders, comprising 327, 388 (46.9%) males and 370, 186 (53.1%) females.
The unclaimed cards were at the end of the exercise taken to respective local government office of INEC in the state for onward collection by holders. More recent records show that a total of 736, 570 cards, representing 59.6% of the total volume produced for the state, had been collected by verified holders as at 23rd April, 2014.
This left a balance of 519, 999 cards as at that date.
For the Continuous Voter Registration, 149, 089 new registrants were recorded in Osun – pending removal of multiple registrations and the application of INEC’s business rules for printing Permanent Voter Cards. This figure was made up of 70, 024 (47%) males and 79, 065 (53%) females.
The above represents the available PVCs for the Osun guber election. INEC has a major to play. Already a coalition of NGOs on Thursday accused INEC of perfecting plans of massively rigging the election to favour APC on Saturday.
INEC is yet to deny this allegation and this portends danger ahead of the election that may play a pivotal signpost on how the 2023 general elections will look like.
The electoral body had promised that within 12hours the Osun guber election results will be ready.
THE AREGBESOLA FACTOR:
It’s a known fact that former governors are demi gods in the Nigerian political firmament.
Yes it’s the truth.
The Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola cannot easily be shoved aside. If it’s true as being speculated in many quarters, it’s not going to be an easy ride for Oyetola back to government House.
Aregbesola as an immediate past governor of the State of Osun most likely will play a damaging role that could unsettle the Tinubu camp in Osun.
The former Minister apparently to show his anger was not at the mega rally to finally sell Oyetola to Osun citizens. This is an ominous sign ahead the election on Saturday.
WILL TINUBU OR ATIKU TRIUMPH?
This would have been an easy question to answer but given the fact that the APC camp is divided against itself while the PDP remains a united front, it might not be a walk over for APC.
The Tinubu camp has the incumbency factor working for it to emerge victorious while PDP will rely on its old glory that’s fast waning.
Either way, the Tinubu camp looks good to overshadow the Atiku camp tomorrow (Saturday).
There are 16 political parties registered to run the guber race, none except for Labour Party that made a little foray last week and little noise in the media has the followership of PDP and APC in the State.
The other 14 political parties are onlookers in the Osun guber battle.
Osun Battle: It’s a two-horse race as Oyetola faces old rival Adeleke
…will Atiku or Tinubu triumph?
… expected factors to shape outcome of guber poll
…the Tinubu and Aregbesola challenge
As state of Osun citizens prepare to vote in another governor on Saturday, it is going to be a straight two-horse race between two political foes who had encountered each other in an election that was declared inconclusive in 2018.
TheNewsGuru com, (TNG) in this analysis will take a sharp and deep analysis of the major determinants of the guber poll that’s an acid test for two presidential flag bearers of Nigeria’s two major political parties, the APC and the PDP.
Serving Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress APC and Senator Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party PDP are known political foes who cannot easily ignore each other.
While Oyetola has the Jagaban, Asiwaju Oba the lion of Bourdilion, former Governor of Lagos State Bola Ahmed Tinubu and APC presidential candidate in the 2023 general elections as an ‘egbon’ who in the first place miraculously made it possible for him to become a governor in 2018, Senator Ademola Adeleke is from a family arguably adjudged as one of the richest in Osun State.
Apart from having a billionaire family background, his brother in-law, Atiku Abubakar, the PDP presidential flag-bearer in the 2023 elections, former Senate President, Dr Bukola Saraki who is also a brother, PDP governors, his nephew, talented music icon, Davido are solidly behind him to match the Jagaban factor vote for vote, cash for cash to change the narrative tomorrow (Saturday).
DETERMINING FACTORS;
There are 30 local governments and three senatorial districts in Osun State properly oiled and serviced by Oyetola. The three sitting senators of the State are of APC extraction.
Definitely this is a big minus to the PDP camp of Adeleke if he has not done enough ground work to strategically put his trusted men in the senatorial districts to galvanise votes for him.
This could signal a massive defeat for PDP if the three senators are on ground definitely they will mobilise who is who in their districts to rubbish PDP.
THE TINUBU FACTOR:
Osun State is Tinubu’s ancestral home, the candidate is his blood brother and above all Tinubu grabbed the state from PDP and enthroned his prodigy Rauf Aregbesola the current Minister of Interior as Governor.
Osun is like Lagos to Tinubu, a defeat by the PDP in his ancestral home will amount to a collosal loss as same could be replicated at the national level next year.
Armed with this fear factor, the Jagaban will relocate mountains to ensure Osun is delivered on Saturday. Anything short of that spells doom at the national level.
The south western enclave of Nigeria is predominantly an APC affair with five serving governors at the beck and call of Tinubu, nothing short of a victory must prevail.
THE ATIKU FACTOR:
Atiku is related to Osun by marriage. His wife Titi is a daughter of the soil and this could help in no small way. Atiku on the other hand knows that a victory in Osun could translate to half a victory for him in 2023.
But coming from abroad 72hours to the battle might not be enough to help him mobilise soldiers for Adeleke to unseat Oyetola who just last week paid Osun pensioners outstanding N1.6billion payments. This definitely was a political strategy to make the oldies show up at the polling booths on Saturday.
THE CASH FOR VOTE FACTOR:
Take it or leave it, cash for vote is the weapon with which Nigerian politicians deploy to win elections in this clime.
Trader money was introduced to make it look legal in Nigeria but certainly no sane Nigerian will venture into politics at any level without having a war chest to conquer the electorate.
Both major parties, PDP and APC will match each other to deliver cash to garner votes on Saturday.
The apex electoral body, INEC on Wednesday has declared that cash for vote does not fall within its purview and the security operatives who are very hungry may just look the other way while politicians grease the palms of voters.
This is a critical determinant in the Osun guber election as cash will flow in all directions.
THE INEC FACTOR:
There were 1, 256, 569 PVCs produced for registered voters in Osun State ahead of the distribution exercise.
By the end of the exercise on 9th March, 697, 574 cards (55.5%) were collected by verified holders, comprising 327, 388 (46.9%) males and 370, 186 (53.1%) females.
The unclaimed cards were at the end of the exercise taken to respective local government office of INEC in the state for onward collection by holders. More recent records show that a total of 736, 570 cards, representing 59.6% of the total volume produced for the state, had been collected by verified holders as at 23rd April, 2014.
This left a balance of 519, 999 cards as at that date.
For the Continuous Voter Registration, 149, 089 new registrants were recorded in Osun – pending removal of multiple registrations and the application of INEC’s business rules for printing Permanent Voter Cards. This figure was made up of 70, 024 (47%) males and 79, 065 (53%) females.
The above represents the available PVCs for the Osun guber election. INEC has a major to play. Already a coalition of NGOs on Thursday accused INEC of perfecting plans of massively rigging the election to favour APC on Saturday.
INEC is yet to deny this allegation and this portends danger ahead of the election that may play a pivotal signpost on how the 2023 general elections will look like.
The electoral body had promised that within 12hours the Osun guber election results will be ready.
THE AREGBESOLA FACTOR:
It’s a known fact that former governors are demi gods in the Nigerian political firmament.
Yes it’s the truth.
The Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola cannot easily be shoved aside. If it’s true as being speculated in many quarters, it’s not going to be an easy ride for Oyetola back to government House.
Aregbesola as an immediate past governor of the State of Osun most likely will play a damaging role that could unsettle the Tinubu camp in Osun.
The former Minister apparently to show his anger was not at the mega rally to finally sell Oyetola to Osun citizens. This is an ominous sign ahead the election on Saturday.
WILL TINUBU OR ATIKU TRIUMPH?
This would have been an easy question to answer but given the fact that the APC camp is divided against itself while the PDP remains a united front, it might not be a walk over for APC.
The Tinubu camp has the incumbency factor working for it to emerge victorious while PDP will rely on its old glory that’s fast waning.
Either way, the Tinubu camp looks good to overshadow the Atiku camp tomorrow (Saturday).
There are 16 political parties registered to run the guber race, none except for Labour Party that made a little foray last week and little noise in the media has the followership of PDP and APC in the State.
The other 14 political parties are onlookers in the Osun guber battle.