By Mideno Bayagbon
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More than six months ago, I decided to poke nose into the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, affairs. I started scouting around to have a feel of what the thinking was concerning which zone of the country the party was likely to gift its presidential candidacy. Among those I interacted with, which happens to be some of those who behind the scene tele guide most of the things that happen in the party, it was clear the party had its eyes fully fixed on retaining the presidency in the northern part of the country. And one aspirant stood out even then. Among those who gave the game away were three former governors.
In my quest, I chanced on a meeting, somewhere in the hilly side of Asokoro, the play ground of the political super rich. Looking at the room full of what can be described as political juggernauts and a sprinkling of job men, and gleaning the reason for their meeting so late in the day, it became clear that a particular aspirant was doing all the leg works, behind the scenes, and was gathering momentum behind veiled doors. By the time the ebullient and very politically sagacious former group chairman of DAAR Communications, Alegho Raymond Dokpesi, started doing the rounds, I knew without any iota of doubt that the game had taken on the hue of a frenetic no-going back stance. I knew then for certain, that for the South, the presidency was lost even before the game started.
I had time to notice each and every one of the politicians, who from that meeting have shown their hands. These were a bunch of former governors, ministers and must go to political chieftains. There appeared to be more of them from the South than the north. And surprise, surprise, a whole load of them were South Easterners whose peoples agitation is that it is the turn of the Igbos to produce a Nigerian president , of Igbo origin. For those who have followed An Eye On Politics in the last one year, I have been emphatic in saying that the closest the South East will get to producing a Nigerian president of Igbo origin, will be then Transportation Minister, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi or Rivers Governor, Nyesom Wike. I took deluge of flaks from deluded people who thought I was yarning rubbish.
Indeed, Anyim Pius Anyim was emphatic that though he was not running as an Igbo aspirant, nonetheless, “what the Igbos are agitating for is a President of Nigeria from geographical South Eastern Nigeria”; ruling out the possibility of smart alec Wike or Amaechi running for President under the Igbo agitation cover. As a friend, I told him the blunt truth, as I saw it. He thought I was wrong. Now, however, except, perhaps, Ex Governor Peter Obi manages to cobble together a coalition strong enough to beat the two dragons in the political race for 2023 presidency, the brightest hope, for now remains the Igbo man from Ikwerre. The one his admirers call Lion of Ubima: Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi. More on Obi later.
Like we say in Waffi, nobi today yansh day for back. For those like me who have kept a close watch on the political happenings, the schemings, the horse tradings and betrayals, shout as loud as the ordinary people of the South East can, 2023 was not likely to throw up one of them as President of Nigeria. Except like I have also always said, it is an Amaechi or a Nyesom Wike, who identify as both Igbos and South Southerners. Even the fluke aspirant, Godwin Emefiele, who thought he could capitalise on the largesse he has unconscionably been dishing out from his exalted Central Bank of Nigeria position, as Governor, to a select few power brokers around the president, is also one of the peripheral Igbos.
You may ask, what of Anyim Pius Anyim, the former senate president and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, who threw in his hat early enough in the race? What about Peter Obi, the prototype Obama incarnate whose huge support base is growing rapidly on social media, among the youths? In the south. Anyim’s fate is already known. He lost miserably at the just concluded PDP primaries. His fellow Igbos did not even trust him enough, or believe in their agitation enough, to coalesce their votes behind their son. They sold it to the highest bidders; for their personal interests. They all conveniently forgot the agitation for a Nigerian President of Igbo extraction. Like most Southerners, except maybe the Yorubas, there is no shared vision or interest. It is everybody to himself. When convenient, personal interest can be masqueraded as zonal or ethnic interests.
Despite his perceived uncouth manner and rascality, a tenacious Nyesom Wike, almost saved the day for the South. And for the Igbos. But he fell to the superior, adept and treacherous politics of the masters of the game. Until he is man enough to tell us what transpired between him and the Sokoto governor, Aminu Tambuwal, Nyesom Wike and his supporters cry of betrayal ring hollow. For six years, they were tag team partners. The expectation was that a day would dawn when they would combine to vie for the presidency of the country. But something we have not been told happened, between them. Tambuwal resolved on the death kiss of a lover, a stab to the heart, to teach his garrulous, uncouth and temperamental friend a political lesson of his life. Truth be told, it was not only Tambuwal whose hands held the knife struck deep into Wike’s ambitious heart. Many of his fiendly friends, what some describe as frenemies, directly held the knife and gave it the deathly penetration. Many Southern governors, including Igbos, were part of the betrayal.
For Wike, it was a tale of the unexpected. The secrecy that sustained its deftness is a story for a Nollywood movie. Because, for most of the day, last Saturday, at the PDP convention, it was openly whispered that the day had turned in the direction of Wike. Most pundits were even beginning to paint a Wike presidential candidacy. Until the bombshell. A successful last minute coups turned the table. And it was a masterclass. Atiku Abubakar who had been plotting this day from way back, carried the crown which hours earlier had almost slipped from his enlarged hands. A season of Wike’s gargantuan ego tripping had come crashing.
Only God and perhaps Wike himself know how much of Rivers state’s money was frittered away. Some claim it could be in the region of over N30 billion. They quantify the nationwide “consultation”, the array of chartered jets deployed, the humongous cash for votes game that went on all night, Friday night, the large fleet of Wike coated expensive, luxurious state of the art vehicles that flooded Abuja all branded with his ambition. Nevertheless, the truth is, the Rivers state governor is a man’s man. A talk-na-do, not just an empty boaster. He was a one man riot squad and all the tricks in the book were need to stop him.
I feel for him. While I believe a Wike candidacy would have fallen flat at the polls because of his character flaws, he nonetheless gave it his all. he deserves some level of commendation. My suspicion is that Wike will not sleep with both eyes until the end of the convention of the APC. i can even second guess what his main prayers, were he be a praying man, will be? “God, you that made me to fail, please also fail Rotimi Amaechi. Make it a one-one goalless draw. I can’t stand him contesting for the position of president while I have failed so miserably” As most Nigerians now know, Amaechi winning the All Progressives Congress ticket will perhaps give this his former bosom friend a more deadly heart attacked than his being politically out smarted, by the deathly blow by Atiku and his fierce-some gang.
As we all look to the APC Convention coming up early next week, the sky is still starkly dark. The candidacy water is still too troubled to throw up any educated guess. No one is sure who the eventual candidate will turn out to be. President Muhammadu Buhari is playing it close to his chest either because he wants to spring an earth shaking surprise, or he too is as confused as the rest of the APC as to who to give the ticket. Nevertheless, the fear of cataclysmic implosion looms large. Will the APC survive this its convention? Will Tinubu get the Wike treatment or will he devise his own Wikenised strategy to beat all those who are standing in his way, vowing that he cannot be the candidate? Will Buhari push the party towards an Amaechi candidacy or will the mafia around him, having failed with their audacious Godwin Emefiele gambit try to foist an Ahmed Lawan candidacy on the party? Will APC be as lucky as the PDP in managing the expected fall out from its convention?
I suspect where the pendulum will swing but let me keep my mouth shut for now.