Nigeria’s oil exports to slip in October

Nigeria’s total exports are set to slip in October, possibly to a five-month low, according to loading programmes.

Export plans for most grades were showing levels of roughly 1.72 million bpd, compared with 1.88 million bpd in September, according to a Reuters’ report.

While some cargoes would likely be added, the current plan stands at a five-month low, and was expected to remain slightly below September’s loadings of 1.88 million bpd, the report stated.

August’s exports had been on track to exceed two million bpd, a 17-month high, but the closure of the export pipelines for Bonny Light crude pulled them lower. The final schedule also included about 1.88 million bpd.

Shell’s lifted its latest force majeure declaration on Bonny Light early last week, meaning all the nation’s export grades are again free of restriction.

Nigeria’s oil output has rebounded this year, aided by concerted government efforts to placate militants in the restive Niger Delta region where the bulk of the nation’s crude is produced, but it has struggled to maintain peak output levels.

Theft from the nation’s oil pipelines in the Delta region leads to frequent shutdowns, limiting output. PRODN-NG Additionally, unrest still threatens some oil infrastructure despite the government’s efforts.

Three cargoes of Akpo condensate, with 97,000 bpd, are also set to load in October, compared with four cargoes of 133,000 bpd in September.

It stated that key grades Bonny Light, Brass River and Qua Iboe loading plans were all smaller than the September programmes, and there were no exports planned for Abo, Antan or Pennington.

Forcados exports were scheduled to rise to 256,000 bpd, and Erha also showed an increase.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation raised official selling prices in September for Bonny Light and Qua Iboe crude oil to dated Brent plus 48 cents and 82 cents per barrel respectively.

The August differential for Bonny Light was dated Brent plus three cents, while for Qua Iboe, it was 13 cents per barrel.

Sonangol had allocated all but two of its October loading cargoes, one Dalia and one Saturno. It offered each at premiums of 15 cents versus dated Brent.

The October export plan of 1.7 million bpd was the highest since September 2016.

Sellers are hoping to maintain differentials, which hit three-year highs for certain grades.