By Mideno Bayagbon
Until the final votes of the 2023 elections are counted, any assumption as to who will emerge victorious, and be crowned President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is a dice in the air. Yet it is only about six weeks away. At no time in our recent history has a presidential race been so close and confusing that even erudite pundits are left in the land of conjecture and permutations, enveloped in doubt.
Yes, there have been a series of polls conducted by some “credible” organisations which posit one winner or the other. But as one who understands polling, I know most of them are fraught with environmental, geographical, and at times, sentimental errors. Yet they are pointers to possibilities. They have fueled dreams, challenged norms, raised angst and disbelief. I just can’t wait for February 25,when hopefully, we can say for certain if most of the polls have been manipulations of the fertile imaginations of the organisations or not.
For some of the polls so far, if the presidential elections were to be held on the days the polling were done, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, the phenomenon and major disrupter of the 2023 elections would be the run-away winner. Yes, it could be so if the elections were conducted in the major metropolis in the South and Middlebelt areas of the country; and mostly among the youths and elites. He will also be confirmed winner if Nigerians in diaspora are allowed to be the voting universe of the elections. But that is not so, and will not be, at least for the 2023 elections. Unfortunately, rural Nigeria and most of the Northwest and Northeast are yet to know of or fall in love with him. As at today, if the election is held, he will probably come third, a phenomenal feat all the same by all reckoning.
While there has been palpable frenzy among Nigerians for a major change in the politics and governance of the country, the traditional, structured parties and politicians, have been stirred into building major boulders of resistance hinged on the faith, ethnicity and poverty of the masses. Adept manipulators of the psyche of the poor-and-down ordinary Nigerians, the politicians of same plumage, despite their current abode in either the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, or same same All Progressives Congress, APC, are united in their zeal to perpetuate themselves and the current system which they embody.
But even they know, for a fact, that their erstwhile rollercoaster, rough ride over the populace is imperiled and is threatening to burst at the seams. Things, they now realize, are beginning to fall apart. They are now beginning to recognize that even if they win the current battle and either Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, (who from current standings is likely to), or Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu, (gathering steam and could swing a major upset), emerges the winner of the Presidential Elections, currently projected to go into a tailspin of a re-run, the youths and elites have tasted blood. It might just be the last time the old guard of Nigerian politics will defy the mood and feelings of Nigerians and impose themselves in the leadership echelon of the country.
But that is, only if Nigerians are tired of enjoying their suffering-and-smiling disease, like the late Abami Eda, Fela Anikulapo Kuti, diagnosed. For indeed, it is beyond belief that after the havoc the All Progressives Congress, APC, has wreaked on the economy and the psyche of the people of Nigeria, there are still otherwise very educated, enlightened and hugely impacted people who are at the forefront of championing the ambition of a possibly mentally and health-challenged Asiwaju Tinubu who thinks Nigerians owe him a duty to make him president, whether he is fit or not. What of the PDP? Atiku Abubakar is 76 years old. A serial contester, he is perhaps best prepared to hit the ground running from day one. Nevertheless, among his supporters, /the general feeling is that an Obi win is the restart Nigeria needs now.
Nigeria has a major chance to take the bull of development by the horns; a chance to mobilise its dormant energies and revive a belief in self again. Can you imagine if this election, the APC paraded Vice President Yemi Osinbajo or a Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi while the PDP counters with Peter Obi or Ifeanyi Okowa? Still at that, these may not represent the best in us, but they would have been a fair beginning, a fresh boost to getting our leadership on the right path.
That is what Peter Obi’s candidacy epitomizes. He may be guilty of all the mud his opponents have tried to drench him in. It is likely, he might not win the Presidential Election as the egoistically ambitious governor of Obi’s home state, Professor Charles Soludo and the near illiterate but opportunistic billionaire, Chief Arthur Eze, have glibly postulated – what did the Bible say about a man’s enemies? They simply don’t get it. My reading of the Obi phenomenon is way beyond he, as Peter Obi, winning the elections; it would delight his supporters if he did. But he is just a symbol, a catalyst, an embodiment of the fears and hopes of the average Nigerian.
It is a movement that encapsulates the frustrations of the average Nigerian, who instead of progressing has rather been pummeledand stomped, hopeless, into the cesspit of poverty. It is a movement to reclaim the nation, to save it from being the failed state that our unfortunate romance with the hugely incompetent, tribalistic and irredentist Muhammadu Buhari has led us to. Obi is part of the old guard; but he has somehow managed to fire our imaginations to the attainable possibilities that abound. He has infused himself into the alternative voice whose sentiments coalesce with that of the Nigerian on the street.
This is especially so, given that of the three frontline candidates, Obi, based on a number of indices, which include leadership experience and reach, is possibly the least qualified! If Atiku and Tinubu were 10 years younger, given that they are from the same political pool, they potentially could have been better candidates. Nevertheless, any one of them is better than the mistake in Aso Rock now. But Tinubu is no longer the man we all knew. Tainted though he is, it is his state of health and what he represents that is the major reason he should not be entrusted with the nation’s leadership now.
Atiku Abubakar was by my estimation one of the best prepared for the nation’s leadership which he has aspired for seven times now. He has a body of studies on every area of the economy and an economic world view that would have been most of what the nation needs now. But he too has an entitlement mentality; he too believes that it is his right to be president of Nigeria. But he is old and we can only pray that, should he be the one elected, he has the energy and health to turnaround a devastated nation like ours.
Peter Obi, has changed our politics, shaking it to its very foundation to the extent that, though a deemed outsider, his phenomenal impact, has made the 2023 presidential election a nail biting experience; a toss of the coin in which anyone of the three front runners can end up President. But who that person will be, only God can, for now, say. That is what Obi has brought into the game. That is what makes him go head to head with Atiku and Tinubu as the Nigerian of the year 2022 for me. He can hold his head high no matter what the outcome of the presidential elections turns out to be.
Mideno Bayagbon: [email protected]