President Muhammadu Buhari had said the lockdown measure put in place to curtail the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the country will only last as long as scientific advisers declare they are necessary.
TheNewsGuru.com (TNG) recalls President Buhari on March 29, 2020, ordered total lockdown in Abuja as well as Lagos and Ogun States for an initial period of 14 days, and States Governor followed suit, in a bid to stop the spread of the virus in the country.
On Saturday, President Buhari stated that the freedoms Nigerians forfeited for some time now are essential world over to halt and defeat the spread of COVID-19.
The questions Nigerians are asking now are: when will Nigerians get their freedom back? When will it be necessary for scientists in the country to advise the government to relax the lockdown measure? In other words, when will it be safe for the government to ease the lockdown order? At the end of the initial 14 days, what happens next?
A cursory look at the data being released by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) shows that the lockdown measure will remain for the time being, as there are three preconditions that must be meant before the government could confidently announce relaxing the lockdown order.
Precondition 1: COVID-19 vaccine or drug is discovered
The government will tomorrow, immediately lift the lockdown order if a COVID-19 vaccine or treatment drug is discovered today. Currently, there is no vaccine or treatment drug available for COVID-19. What the NCDC is doing is to manage infected patients until they recover. However, the NCDC did confirm that there are many drugs in clinical trials as scientists work towards finding a cure for the disease. According to the NCDC, some of the drugs have shown promising results in laboratory studies but have not yet been proven in humans.
Precondition 2: COVID-19 is quarantined out of Nigeria
As of yesterday, confirmed Coronavirus cases in Nigeria rose to 318 after 13 new cases were confirmed. The virus has now spread to 19 states, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. Currently, Lagos, Abuja and Osun have the highest number of cases at 163, 56 and 20 respectively. Notice the pattern of spread in the map below. Use landscape mode to have a good view of the infographics if you are using a mobile device.
The NCDC is presently managing COVID-19 in the country by isolating confirmed cases and quarantining contacts of confirmed cases. That the government has shut all borders into the country means that there won’t be a report of any imported cases. The stay-at-home order or otherwise, the lockdown order is to manage community spread. That States borders are closed, means that spread across States will be minimal, and gradually the virus would be quarantined out of the country.
Precondition 3: Government lifts lockdown and allows everyone to get infected
The worst-case scenario for COVID-19 management is for the government to lift lockdown order and allow every Nigerian to get infected with COVID-19. Everyone is infected, and those who survived developed natural immunity.
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Why lockdown is critical in tackling COVID-19
Meanwhile, Dr Tolulope Osayomi, a medical geographer in the Department of Geography, University of Ibadan has said the lockdown in Lagos, Ogun and Abuja is critical in preventing the spread of the coronavirus to other parts of the country.
He stated this in Ibadan on Sunday while reacting to the raging COVID-19 and government’s response to curtail its spread.
The don also urged government to place a ban on inter-state vehicular movement except for transportation of essential goods to check transmission.
Osayomi, who has been mapping the transmission of the virus in Nigeria since the Italian index case, stated that the lockdown in the affected areas would ultimately halt transmission.
To achieve the desired effect in Ogun, Lagos and Abuja, Osayomi, however, called for adequate palliatives for vulnerable persons to encourage observance of the stay-at-home directive.
Speaking on ”Understanding the Geography of Transmission of COVID-19 in Nigeria,” Osayomi said that there should be equitable distribution of palliatives to indigent and vulnerable populations.
“Lagos, the country’s economic capital has over 50 per cent of the country’s cases while the administrative capital, the Federal Capital territory (FCT), accounts for a little over 20 per cent of the total.
”In the light of the fact that COVID-19 is a highly transmissible disease, it is very likely that a significant proportion of the country’s population will be susceptible to infection.
“Thus, a careful examination of the geographical distribution and the possible underlying factors of COVID-19 in Nigeria is fundamental to its prevention and control,” he said.
He also called for strict enforcement of ban on vehicular movements as well as large gatherings.
“NCDC, in partnership with mobile service providers, should provide a three-digit toll free number for the public to call or text in any event,” Osayomi said.
He also added that there should be an enforced limit on the number of passengers public transport operators could convey as well as mass distribution of face masks and hand sanitisers.