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By Dele Sobowale
“If you don’t know where you are going; you’ll wind up somewhere else.”
Yogi Bera, US Comedian.
Ask many non card-carrying citizens about the two major political parties in Nigerian today, they will probably tell you that the All Progressives Congress, APC, and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, have failed the country since return to civil rule in 1999. Some will even offer the opinion that we need a third party – in order to make a clean break from the past. If you believe them, then you must be ready for a surprise in 2023. Unless certain events occur, then you might as well brace yourself for a contest between two old men of Nigerian politics in 2035 – Alhaji Abubakar Atiku as candidate of the PDP and Alhaji Ahmed Tinubu as the candidate of the APC. My advice to those opposed to any of those as successors to Buhari is simple. If you don’t want it, start working hard now. When a thunderstorm is predicted, it is of no use to insult the Weather Forecaster on television. Get ready to do the needful to protect yourself.
Before going into the reasons for that projection, permit me to say that this is not my wish. But, the unfolding political drama – including behind the scenes activities – indicates that the people of Nigeria would have been boxed into a corner resulting in onlythese options. Certainly, the usual adventurers, independent candidates and third party aspirants will contest. They will have no chance. “God is always on the side of the big battalions. Marshall Turene, 1611-1675, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ p 20. These are the battalion commanders in Nigerian politics as we move towards 2023.
The more discerning readers would have made some obvious inferences from the statement above. First, Igbo people will once again be left out of the picture – either totally or partially. Tinubu as APC flag-bearer will not repeat late Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s blunder of selecting his Vice-President, late Chief Umeadi,from the South East in the 1979 election. Awolowo received less than two percent of Igbo vote as a result. I have an idea who will join Tinubu on the ticket. But, that is a secret for now.
Second, Atiku will return to the South for his tag-team partner. He might repeat the experiment with Peter Obi. But, that is highly doubtful; Obi no longer controls his state’s votes. Instead, a South South governor in strong control of his state’s votes will be the likely choice. I again have an idea who will be his VP.
Third, while the PDP will ensure a Muslim-Christian ticket; the APC might gamble that since a Muslim-Muslim – late Chief MKO Abiola and Alhaji Babagana Kingibe – won the 1993 election overwhelmingly, there is no reason why another team so composed cannot win. At least, they know, or presume to know, where the votes are.
Fourth, in the event of the break-up of the two major political parties, Tinubu and Atiku are better positioned to take out their own factions and assemble new parties for 2023. Granted, neither the ACN nor the PDM headed by the two respectively is as strong as it once was. But, they still constitute the largest fragments of the major parties and can easily attract more politicians.
Fifth, money talks with authority; especially in politics. It was pointed out last week that with less than eighteen months to the 2023 elections, and the parties still undecided about the dates for their Congresses and Conventions, the primary elections to select the candidates will be more like 100 metre sprints instead of marathons. Sprints favour muscular people; marathons slender individuals. Nigerians need to be reminded that the Presidential candidate must have political structures in 36 states, 774 Local Governments and about 6,023 wards. Given the short time at the disposal of the candidates, only those with deep pockets and wide connections have any chance of emerging as flag-bearers of their political parties.
In fact, this might be the chief competitive advantage of Tinubu and Atiku. They can quickly mobilise human and financial resources to all locations at speeds their competitors can hardly match. Grand ideas of governance and economic development programmes are fine; but, they are utterly useless if they fail to reach the grassroots in language they can understand.
Finally, and this might shock our urban elites. Two trips to Niger State in August revealed to me that the thoughtful, erudite and beloved candidates of the third party impressing the educated elite are mostly unknown in rural Niger State. There is no reason to believe that they are better known in Katsina, Sokoto or Zamfara. I stopped, where it was safe, to share fellowship with patrons of watering houses (life goes on even in the midst of unprecedented tragedies) and took the opportunity to ask them if they will vote for certain individuals. Almost without exception, they have never heard of the “darlings” of print and electronic media. How on earth they will be expected to vote for unknowns is a mystery for the third party promoters to unravel.
Is the race now certainly a two-man affair? Not at all. Let me quickly explain why it might still be open; and why one of the two might not make it as his party’s candidate.
“The word “impossible” does not or should not exist.” Napoleon, 1769-1821.
Too many times in history, the Almighty has demonstrated to mankind that the word “impossible” does not exist for Him whenever He chooses to provide succour to the people that suffer. And, God knows Nigerians are suffering hardships which, had our founding fathers thought possible, would not have got independence for us. I strongly believe that, in a referendum, the vast majority of my generation of Nigerians would gladly return the country to UK. None of us alive on October 1, 1960, ever imagined that our own people will treat us worse than white colonialists. Yet, I still believe that Nigeria will experience changes which will enable us to attain our manifest destiny among nations of the world.
My cardinal reason for fervently wishing for a credible new party is simple. The APC and PDP, being two sides of the same coin, can no longer offer the collective leadership expected of a genuine political party. They are now mainly focussed on seizing power for the benefit of a few of their members. They don’t even pretend to care for all their members. There are probably as many destitute Nigerians who voted APC as PDP. Atrocious social services – insecurity, education, health, roads, water, food scarcity – don’t discriminate between members.So, it is a waste of time trying to pick and choose between them.
“All political parties die at last of swallowing their own lies.”
Arbuthnot, 1667-1735, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 191.
“PDP splits as two chairmen emerge, Wike and Secundus divide party officers.”
News Report, August 25, 2021.
I was just getting to this point when the vendor brought my morning papers. There starring me in the face was half of the reason the race might still be wide open. That report came after another report informed us that, “Buni battles five suits, 100 APC members seek removal” on August 20, 2021. Right in front of our eyes, the two major parties are dying after swallowing their own falsehoods based on pretending that they are real political parties instead of conspiracies to seize power in Nigeria. They share the same fate in three fundamental ways.
One, they both practice “politics without principles”. That is always fatal. Second, each of the factions in the disputes tearing them apart strongly believes it is absolutely right and the other group wrong. Three, given the min-set for total victory over their opponents, none of the factions will welcome mediation or negotiation or compromise. Everybody in the two parties is in one camp or another. No fence-sitting or neutrality is allowed. “You are either for us or against us” is the mentality. It will be “a fight to finish” in the two parties.
“Those who do not remember history are condemned to repeat it.
George Santayana, 1863-1952, VBQ p 93.
The entire episode reminds me of the conflict which resulted in the break-up of the Action Group in the early 1960s. That burst-up led to various repercussions including widespread violence, pyromania (weti e) in the old Western Region. Our family house was partially burnt by one faction of the AG; the building directly opposite to it at Inalende (appropriate given the English meaning – “fire drove me here”) was totally razed by arsonists the following week. I was tossed over the fence, with money stuffed into my pocket and instructions to head for the motor park and go to Lagos. I arrived at 2 in the early hours of the morning, with the clothes on my back and trekked home in Lagos Island. If ever there was an example of elephants fighting and blades of grass getting crushed, that was it. More horrors followed the AG internal conflict. Till today, some families in the old Western Region have remained enemies on account of that development.
It is important to recall that sad experience in order to alert fellow Nigerians to the threats ahead of us as a result of the struggle for control within APC and PDP. In 1963, there were probably less than 100 guns in private hands in Nigeria. Now, over 6 million sophisticated weapons are available for hire. Politicians are never shy of engaging gunmen to settle scores. That means only two things. One, innocent people will die; two, we might have no elections at all; or the next President will swim into Aso Rock on a river of blood…..
To be continued…”