The state of emergency has been announced in the Republic of the Sudan after the military took over and arrested political leaders, including transitional Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. In a televised address, General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan, a military officer who headed the Sovereign Council, announced that he was dissolving the country’s ruling Sovereign Council, as well as the government led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. General al-Burhan claimed that the military had to intervene because of the quarrels among political factions, and committed to “international accords” and the transition to civilian rule, with elections planned for July 2023.
This is not the first time this year, when the representatives of African military came to power through a coup. On September 5, President Alpha Conde, Guinea’s 83-year-old leader was ousted by Mamady Doumbouya, a 41-year-old veteran of the French Foreign Legion and a colonel in Guinea’s special forces, supported by the military.
Mali also witnessed a power transition in May 2021, a second one in a year. A young Col Assimi Goïta had transitional President Bah Ndaw and PM Moctar Ouane arrested over the allegation that they failed in their duties and were seeking to sabotage the country’s transition.
From January 1956 to December 2001, there were a total of 80 successful coups in Africa, 108 attempted coups, and 139 reported coup plots, with about half of all coups and attempted coups coming from West Africa. The constantly deteriorating security situation in the region results in the spilling of violence of the borders and affecting more and more neighboring countries
According to researcher and journalist Timothy Kalyegira, one of the main reasons for the ongoing “third wave of coups” in Africa is the popular disappointment in democratic institutes and practices. “General elections, so obviously flawed and emphatically not free and fair, are regularly held, causing frustration to build up in society, and the state feeling insecure clamps, down on pockets of the media, civil society and political opposition, deepening that frustration even more and in certain instances, it explodes into a coup or coup attempt”.
Take for example Guinean President Alpha Conde, who was the target of popular anger in 2020 when he approved a new constitution that removed its two-term limit, allowing him to run for the presidency again and the “win” presidency in October 2020.
The experts fear that the Sudan is not the last to experience a coup d’état. Many peace observers cite Equatorial Guinea as a country with a high risk of violent upheaval. Equatoguinean President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who is widely criticized by the opposition and the international society, has been in power for more than 40 years. Several coup attempts were intercepted in Equatorial Guinea during his rule. A coup of December 2017 was almost successful. Back then, in a statement read on public radio, Security Minister Nicholas Obama Nchama blamed the alleged coup on mercenaries hired by opposition groups and supported by unnamed “powers”. He said the coup attempt had been foiled with the help of the Cameroonian security services.
The fact that while Equatorial Guinea is one of sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest oil producers, much of its population still lives in poverty makes it more prone to popular unrest. The Equatoguinean opposition has long been in exile, building up connections with Western powers, who are ready to support a power transition from Obiang family to basically anyone else. Thus Equatorial Guinea is highly likely to be the next to hit the headlines with the news of another African coup d’état.