… how APC floored PDP twice relying heavily on northern votes
… will APC emerge a third time?
As the 2023 general elections draw close, Nigerians should be able to make a quick reflection of how the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC emerged in 2015 and 2019.
In both presidential elections, the APC emerged victorious while the main opposition party in Nigeria, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP emerged second garnering most votes from southern Nigeria while other parties recorded very poor results.
In this analysis, TNG will try to illustrate how the two major parties fared in snippets while a comparative analysis of both presidential elections would be looked into and the possibility of who might take over from Buhari in 2023.
The 2015 presidential battle was between incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP and President Muhamadu Buhari of the APC.
At the end of the presidential battle, PDP polled 11,853,162 votes against APC’s 15,425,921votes, it was less than 4million votes with which Buhari defeated the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP.
No form of litigation took place as the then president, Jonathan called Buhari before INEC formally announced the results to congratulate the then President -elect, Buhari.
Again, the electorate voted on regional lines as Buhari’s major votes came from the northern part of Nigeria though the PDP made some serious incursion into the middle belt and two north eastern states but it was not enough to deliver Jonathan as the clamour for change then was massive.
Jonathan lost out and Buhari took Nigerians on a roller coaster ride for four years which ended in 2019 and election was conducted a second time.
See below the number of votes registered, votes accredited, votes rejected and votes cast in 2015.
From the records below half of the registered voters did not vote during the 2015 presidential polls.
Total number of registered voters:67,422, 005
Total number of accredited voters:
31,746,490
Total number of votes cast: 28,587,564
Total number of votes rejected:844,519
Total number of votes cast:29, 432,083
2019 is another Year in review in this analysis as the election was held. The issue of INEC server that collated the results became a teaser as there were counter claims of the existence of a server.
Finally, the apex electoral body, INEC declared that no server existed. This rested the matter for good.
Total number of registered voters: 82,344,107
Total number of accredited voters (As Collated) 29,364,209.
Total number of rejected votes: 1,289,607
Total number of votes cast: 27,324,583
As recorded the number of registered votes in 2019 was far higher in 2015 but turnout of voters was less. While in 2015 there were : 67,422.005 registered voters but in 2019, 82,345,107 registered.
On election day in 2015, 28,587,564 cast their votes out of 67,422,005. In 2019, 82,344,107 registered and 27,324,583 voted. A drop of close to one million voters despite the high number of registered voters.
Also, the number of rejected votes in 2019 was higher than that of 2015. While the number of rejected votes in 2015 was 844,519 that of 2019 was 1,289,607.
A clear indication that the level of participation in 2015 was higher than that of 2019 despite the high number of registrants.
The ruling party APC in 2019 garnered
15,191,847 against PDP’s 11,262 ,978.
Out of the 11million votes Atiku secured, 7million was from the southern states while from his ancestral zone the north he secured 3million votes translating into one naked fact that his strongest base was the south.
Traditionally, Buhari garnered more votes from the north and heavy support from the south west where the Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and APC stalwarts stood for him to help truncate PDP’s incursion into the zone.
Lagos which had over 6million registrants had less than 2million voters accredited on election day which PDP almost shared equally with APC as it garnered 580,000 votes against PDP’s 448,000 votes.
States like Borno that had insurgency challenges had 100ppercent delivery for APC. 987,000 accredited voters and 830,000 votes were clinically delivered to APC. During elections in the North Eastern and other northern geo-political zones, insurgency falls asleep during elections .PDP miraculously garnered 71,000 votes in Borno and PDP presidential Atiku Abubakar is from the north eastern part of Nigeria.
A clear signal that if this same feat repeats itself in 2023 Atiku’s chances may become slimmer as the NNPP presidential candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso though from the north west will definitely share votes with Atiku in the North Eastern zone of the country.
Determining factors in the 2023 presidential election:
It may be too early to start looking at the crystal ball to know how the presidential candidates of the four major political parties : PDP, APC, LP and NNPP will fare but so far the campaigns lack the steam of 2015 and 2019.
THE ASIWAJU FACTOR:
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu was the arrowhead that galvanized support in the south west for APC both presidential elections. As at today he’s the presidential candidate of the APC.
He definitely understands the terrain and the magical wand the APC used to floor the PDP once again.
The former Lagos governor has a massive war chest to turn the tide against any rival in Nigeria. He has remained in the corridor of power for close to 23years. Eight years out of which he was the governor of the richest state in Nigeria.
He understands the murky waters of the Nigerian politics and can go the extra mile to secure victory for APC in 2023.
But there’s a cloud over his choice of a running mate which may spell doom for the party in 2023. Religion plays a very pivotal role in politics in Nigeria. This may just be a very big minus and the fact that his party has nothing to point to as a major achievement after eight years in governance.
The south south and southeast may not look at the direction of APC in 2023 and awareness is now at crescendo level across Nigeria. APC needs good votes from both regions to make an impact.
THE WAZIRI FACTOR:
Atiku Abubakar, the Waziri of Adamawa the presidential candidate of the PDP was vice president for eight years. A remarkable feat indeed but so far so good the man has failed to display his political sagacity in the management of men.
The five musketeers that he allowed to go on rampage are champions in archery. As good range shooters they may rock the boat for the Waziri who is embarking on a final mission to Aso Villa as number one citizen in 2023.
Firmness is the number one quality of a good leader. Take a firm action now and regret later. This he did not do and he gave a leeway for the five musketeers to hold the forte to his political detriment.
If four states in the south and one from the middle belt deny PDP votes there’s no need to campaign for 2023 as it will amount to a waste of resources, time and energy. PDP PaIaver has remained incurable and more may rear their ugly heads soon because nothing is happening in PDP now as the one time biggest political party in Africa is seriously slumbering.
Nobody is reckoning with the PDP any longer because of a minor misunderstanding with the five musketeers.
THE OBI-DIENTS FACTOR:
This factor is a very lethal weapon that’s capable of facing atomic bomb and still believe it will go unscathed. Just do a little survey in the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, take just ten under 30 men and women and ask them who they are.
Out of that figure nothing less than 23 will say they’re Obi-dients. It’s a very glaring fact that this cuts across at least four geo-political zones if not five of Nigeria.
It’s a burning wild fire in harmattan haze capable of bringing down any structure but lack of resources and large ego of some members of this powerful movement may deny Peter Obi and Baba-Ahmed Datti this wonderful opportunity.
THE KWANKWANSIYA FACTOR:
This factor will deny APC and PDP prime places in the north and may tilt the results of the 2023 presidential election in favour of a party without structure. Provided it’s going to be a free and fair election.
If the arrowhead of this movement, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso had paired with the Obi-dients movement no missile could have stopped the raging force with which PDP and APC would have gone on permanent retirement.
Conclusively, the 2023 presidential election is still relatively open to any of the above four factors but one of the factors is gradually going into auto reverse. It may not be able to do a detour before February 2023. APC emerging a third time will largely depend on how the party markets itself. So far it’s seriously de-marketing itself.
See all the 2015/2019 collated presidential elections:
NATIONAL COLLATION